EU troops in Chad are ‘damned if they do, damned if they don’t’ – Sunday Tribune
June 22nd, 2008
http://www.tribune.ie/news/article/2008/jun/22/eu-troops-in-chad-are-damned-if-they-do-damned-if-/
Irish Defence Minister Willie O'Dea meets Irish troops in Chad (Sunday Tribune)
Under-fire Irish troops protecting Darfur refugees in Chad could soon be caught up in an impossible situation, as the power-play dynamics in the wider region unfold amid accusations from all sides of European partiality
After a recent rebel advance in eastern Chad, including a shoot-out between the militias and Irish troops, last week, Chad president Idriss Déby questioned European neutrality on national TV.
“We welcomed EUFOR with joy… but it took us by surprise to see, in the first hostile situation, this force cooperating with the invaders.
This came just days after a UNHCR spokeswoman slated Irish EUFOR troops for failing to protect UN staff in the region, amid the recent violence.
But sometimes it is a case of ‘damned if you do, damned if you don’t’.
Initially, the fear was that Sudan-backed Chadian rebels would fight EUFOR, but one of the four rebel factions recently stated that they had no quarrel with the force – so long as it kept out of Chad’s warlord-politics. Déby fears he could fall to a rerun version of his own 1990 coup, when he deposed Hissene Habre after driving on N’djamena from Darfur. (more…)
EUFOR: damned either way? – ISN
June 20th, 2008
EUFOR logo (ISN)
How will the refugees EUFOR is protecting react when they see the same thugs that killed their families and looted their villages take control?
By Simon Roughneen
With senior Sudanese officials in Paris on 19 June to discuss Chad and Darfur with French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, an already dangerous and complex situation for EU troops in eastern Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR) looks set to worsen.
After a recent rebel advance in eastern Chad, that country’s president Idriss Déby told national TV that “We welcomed EUFOR with joy [...] but it took us by surprise to see, in the first hostile situation, this force cooperating with the invaders.
“We have the right to question the effectiveness of this force and how useful its presence is in Chad.”
Whether EUFOR behaved with partiality or impartiality is not the real issue. (more…)
Darfur rebels seek alliance – The Washington Times
May 29th, 2008
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/may/29/darfur-rebels-seek-alliance/?page=1
LONDON – A leading rebel group in Sudan’s western Darfur region, which managed to attack Sudan’s capital of Khartoum earlier this month, says it is seeking an alliance with a former rebel group that dominates southern Sudan to help overthrow the Islamist-dominated government of Lt. Gen. Omar Bashir.
“The [Sudan People's Liberation Movement] has misread the situation by trusting al-Bashir. In truth, he is our common enemy. We are trying to get closer to them,” said Abdullahi El-Tom, head of strategic planning for the Darfur-based Justice and Equality Movement (JEM).
The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), a Christian and animist group, waged a 20-year civil war against the Arab and Islamist dominated North, which claimed an estimated 1.5 million lives.
(more…)
Kenya in the Somali crossfire – ISN
May 20th, 2008
Somalia map (BBC)
The assassination of a Somali al-Qaida affiliate overshadows peace talks, with Kenya vulnerable to terrorist attacks in response.
By Daniel Ooko and Simon Roughneen in Nairobi
As Somalia engages in another round of peace talks, the security and humanitarian situation in the country deteriorates. Some 2.5 million of the country’s estimated eight million people now need humanitarian assistance, according to the UN – a 40 percent increase in 2008 alone. Hundreds of thousands are displaced, including 250,000 in what is thought to be the world’s largest refugee/IDP camp outside Mogadishu.
Yet another round of peace talks held in Djibouti last week ended without a face-to-face meeting between the US/Ethiopian-backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG), and the opposition Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia, which encompasses many of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) routed by the invading Ethiopian army in late 2006.
All told, there seems to be scant hope for a viable political settlement in a country that has lacked effective government since 1991.
Since taking office in November, Somali TFG Prime Minister Nur Hussein has engaged Somalia’s Islamist opposition, unlike his predecessor, Ali Mohamed Gedi – a move also opposed by TFG President Abdullah Yusuf. (more…)
Rising tension could hinder Zimbabwe run-off election – VoA
May 1st, 2008
| By Joe De Capua Washington |
De Capua interview with Simon Roughneen - Download (MP3) 
De Capua interview with Simon Roughneen - Listen (MP3)
As the debate and controversy over Zimbabwe’s presidential election results continue, one analyst warns that rising tensions will make any run-off difficult.
Simon Roughneen is a former humanitarian worker in Africa and an analyst for the International Relations and Security Network. From Dublin, he spoke to VOA English to Africa Service reporter Joe De Capua. (more…)
War in Darfur – ISN
April 18th, 2008
Conflict in the Darfur region in western Sudan has raged since early 2003, with massive loss of life, displacement and suffering.
The protagonists are Sudanese armed forces and their Janjaweed Arab militia allies on the one hand, and various African-Darfurian-Sudanese resistance groups on the other. Also included are some Arab tribes siding with anti-government forces and various rebel factions engaging in sporadic mutual conflict. Estimates of deaths from the conflict range from 9,000 – 450,000.
Multiple causes
The conflict in Darfur has multiple causes. (more…)
Good old Bob – ISN
April 4th, 2008
A meeting of minds - Robert Mugabe and Mahmoud Ahmedinijad (ISNA)
Meeting Robert Mugabe at the outset of his presidency in 1980, former Rhodesian leader Ian Smith noted his erstwhile enemy’s “reasonableness and fair play.” Twenty-eight years after Mugabe’s Marxist rebels defeated the white-led government and established an independent Zimbabwe, Smith would doubtlessly rethink his views, were he still alive. But his death last year has not stopped him being registered to vote in last Saturday’s elections – and almost certainly matching his 1980 assessment with a posthumous vote for the incumbent.
But stuffing the electoral roll with dead or non-existent voters seems venial relative to Mugabe’s litany of mortal oppression. After a decade of demagogue-driven economic disaster, “Africa’s (former) breadbasket” depends on food aid for 4 million of its 11 million population. Three million others have left Zimbabwe, mostly white farmers and black urban middle classes, the country’s economic lynchpins. With inflation at 160,000 percent – and counting – a wheelbarrow of cash would hardly buy a few strips of biltong – a type of local sun dried meat or jerky – if any could be had that is.
And now a country where electricity supplies are intermittent at best is in the dark about its political future. “Good old Bob” has hedged his bets so far on his next move: The electoral commission has given the parliamentary win to the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), but as yet no results from the presidential election are forthcoming. (more…)
Sudan: The last ten percent – ISN
March 25th, 2008
Darfurian girl branded by janjaweed (ISN)
Despite renewed violence in Darfur and Abyei, Sudan’s government thinks the country is more or less at peace, Simon Roughneen writes for ISN Security Watch.
Since early February, Sudanese air strikes and ground attacks in western Darfur, carried out in tandem with janjaweed militia elements, have displaced between 30,000-60,000 people and left unknown numbers dead or missing.
Meanwhile, deadlock over the future status of Abyei, an oil-rich disputed region along the north-south divide in Sudan, has contributed to a recent upsurge in fighting between the southern army and local Arab pastoralists affiliated to the National Congress Party (NCP), the dominant component in the country’s national unity government.
Despite this upsurge in violence, the peace deal between north and south is already 90 percent implemented, this according to Dr Rabbi Abdul-Atti, an adviser to the Sudanese information minister, speaking to reporters in Nairobi.
The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) is the former southern rebel group now in uneasy government partnership with the NCP. (more…)
Zimbabwe braced for election – Sunday Business Post
March 23rd, 2008
http://archives.tcm.ie/businesspost/2008/03/23/story31422.asp
Zimbabwe will elect a new president, parliament and senate on Saturday, amid fears of post-election violence.
ZANU-PF leader and president Robert Mugabe has ruled since independence, and will run against opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. The Movement for Democratic Change leader was a narrow loser in the 2002 elections, which were widely believed to have been rigged. (more…)
Battle for N’djamena Could Lead to International Conflict – IslamOnline
February 6th, 2008
Policemen try to keep order as people carrying their belongings pour across the Ngueli bridge fleeing fighting in N'Djamena. Reuters Photo, Feb. 4 2008
As Chadian rebels retreat from N’djamena, the Idriss Déby régime is claiming victory over what it and its French backer describe as Sudanese-backed aggressors. For its part, the rebel coalition has described its retreat as merely tactical, telling civilians to follow the 15,000 or so that have crossed into next-door Cameroon.Either way, the stand-off holds, and Paris has stated that should the rebels attempt another attack, it will reconsider the laissez-faire stance taken during the offensive last weekend, when it moved its Mirage fighter jets away from the line of fire and restricted its soldiers to protecting expatriate civilians and helping with evacuations.In any case, the French would never let the international airport fall into rebel hands,and despite Déby’s refusal of an offer to evacuate, would not let him fall, unless there had been some dramatic about-turn in relations between the French and the rebels.
This would constitute an audacious double-crossing of Khartoum by their Chadian rebel proxies, who formed their united front after a meeting held in western Darfur during December. The Sudanese military intelligence reminded them of the task at hand—deposing Déby—that the imminent deployment of well-armed Europeans to the region, just before the rainy season, left them with little time to act.
When the rebels last tried to storm N’djamena in April 2006, they were poorly-prepared, apparently mistaking the parliament building for the more important Presidential palace, while some insurgents got lost on the unfamiliar streets. (more…)
