Corruption trumps tribalism – New York Times
January 10th, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/10/opinion/10iht-edrough.1.9130273.html
Kenyans were cynical about their political establishment long before the latest election violence. One wisecrack doing the rounds since last year says “there is more chance of a Luo becoming president of the United States than president of this country” – referring to Barack Obama, whose father hails from the same ethnic Luo country in western Kenya as Raila Odinga, challenger to the incumbent, Mwai Kibaki of the Kikuyu tribe.
Nearly 500 people have been killed in the violence following the announcement by Kenya’s electoral commission that Kibaki somehow pulled back from a million-vote deficit to win re-election. This has prompted dire warnings that the country risks a political meltdown along ethnic-tribal lines.
But there are problems with this analysis. (more…)
Kenyan polls spark tribal battles – ISN
January 7th, 2008
Ethnic fires have been stoked by long-running graft and political cronyism, and Kenya’s much-touted stability was always tenuous at best.
By Simon Roughneen
Despite violence in Darfur, Somalia, eastern Congo and the Niger Delta, welcome and belated Africa-optimism was peddled among diplomatic and investment circles throughout 2007.
Continent-wide economic growth and some tentative conflict resolution successes – as well as growing engagement by China, India and Dubai – prompted western analysts to talk up Africa’s prospects, albeit within a monolithic paradigm.
However, just last week, Kenya’s flawed election results and ensuing violence have undermined such optimism given the country’s status as a stable and relatively prosperous one in a troubled region. (more…)
Cynicism and corruption at the root of Kenya’s problems – Sunday Business Post
January 6th, 2008
http://archives.tcm.ie/businesspost/2008/01/06/story29380.asp
It is too simplistic to say that Kenya’s troubles stem from tribal differences, writes Simon Roughneen.
Kenyans were coyly cynical about their political establishment long before the violence following the presidential election last weekend.
Luo and Kikuyu square-off after disputed elections (AFP)election last weekend.
One wisecrack doing the rounds since last year goes ‘‘there is more chance of a Luo becoming president of America than president of this country’’ – a reference to Barack Obama, whose father comes from the same ethnic Luo region in western Kenya as Raila Odinga, the challenger to the incumbent president, Mwai Kibaki, who is from the Kikuyu tribe.
While Kenya is often portrayed as a business-oriented tourist haven in a troubled region, more than 350 people have been killed in the past week since Kenya’s electoral commission announced that Kibaki somehow pulled back a million vote deficit to win the election.
Street violence, church massacres and foiled demonstrations followed, suggesting that Kenya risks political meltdown along ethnic-tribal lines.
After a US diplomatic intervention, Kibaki said yesterday that he is ready to form a government of national unity to end the crisis that followed his disputed election. The president also said he may accept opposition demands for a fresh election, but only by court order. However, o n the streets the fighting continues.
While Kenya’s tribal divisions are a proximate cause, they are not the underlying source of the violence. (more…)
Africa: Points of (no) return – ISN
December 21st, 2007
Destroyed Sudanese army tank, outside Malakal (Simon Roughneen, Feb 2006)
Peacekeepers and peace processes are unlikely to curb elemental violence and widespread suffering across Darfur, Somalia and eastern Congo, while shaky deals could unravel between North and South Sudan, and in northern Uganda.
“We have reached a point of no return from mediating peace and reconciliation in Uganda, therefore I appeal to all IDPs and Sudanese refugees to return to their respective homes.”
This unbridled optimism came just last week from Riek Machar, a vice-president in the regional government of South Sudan (GoSS) and facilitator of peacemaking efforts between the Uganda government and the feral Lords Resistance Army (LRA) – the rebel group that has terrorized northern Ugandans since the late 1980s.
But not so fast. While the mainly Acholi victims of largely Acholi-perpetrated LRA terror have had some respite since the peace parley opened in July 2006, talks have moved slowly, and given that previous dialogue attempts have come off the rails, for long-suffering northerners to return home en masse just now is premature.
Many points of no return loom elsewhere – but in a very different sense.
Northern Uganda’s 20-year agony is linked to conflict elsewhere – in Sudan, and more recently, intertwined with events in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – crucible for the world’s worst war since 1945, where an estimated 4 million people killed. (more…)
Darfur Conflict Intersects Sudan’s Other Wars – The Irish Examiner
November 1st, 2007
Shambolic peace talks only part of the problem, as renewed war looms elsewhere in Sudan
Kassab IDP camp, northern Darfur (Simon Roughneen, Feb 06)
On Monday United Nations (UN) and African Union (AU) mediators tried to put a positive spin on the latest Darfur peace talks failure. Talks may resume in three weeks, leaving little time to broker some viable deal before a proposed 26,000 UN/AU peacekeeping force enters Darfur in early 2008.
The Libyan-hosted gathering attracted few of the main rebel protagonists, instead featuring a gathering of relative unknowns and splinter movements. But not only have key rebels stayed away, the Khartoum government with whom they are supposed to negotiate has collapsed.
Two of the main rebel factions – the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) wing led by a Paris-based lawyer, Abdul Wahid al-Nur, and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), did not go to Libya. Wahid wants international peacekeepers on the ground first – he is widely popular among ethnic Fur in Darfur’s camps, but has relatively few fighters. For its part, the JEM does not take the UN or the AU as honest brokers, and linked with another SLA wing – ‘Unity’ – to form an effective military opposition to the government forces. (more…)
The coming war in Sudan – Foreign Policy
October 31st, 2007
http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2007/10/31/the_coming_war_in_sudan
On Monday, United Nations (U.N.) and African Union (A.U.) mediators tried to put a positive spin on the failure of the latest Darfur peace talks in Sirte, Libya, after various splinter movements were the only groups to show up to negotiate with a Sudanese government that has collapsed. Crucially, Darfur’s major rebel groups, the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), were absent.
The meeting’s host, Col. Muammar al-Qaddafi, said that the world should cut Khartoum some slack over international peacekeepers since Darfur is nothing more than a tribal “fight over a camel.” (more…)
No Progress Reported in Ending Rift Between North and South Sudan – VoA
October 30th, 2007
De Capua interview with Simon Roughneen mp3 
Listen to De Capua interview with Simon Roughneen mp3
De Capua interview with Simon Roughneen ra
It’s been several weeks since ministers from Southern Sudan suspended their involvement in the national unity government. They say Southern Sudan has not benefited so far from the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed in 2005. The agreement ended about 20 years of civil war.
For a look at where the situation stands now, VOA English to Africa Service reporter Joe De Capua spoke with Simon Roughneen, former aid worker and now a senior analyst for the International Relations and Security Network. (more…)
Sudan: Its not just Darfur – Village
July 10th, 2007
http://www.village.ie/World/Africa/Sudan%3A_It%92s_Not_Just_Darfur/
Looming behind the humanitarian catastrophe in Darfur is Sudan’s other, older, bigger war – the 1983-2005 north-south conflict that claimed over two million lives and displaced over four million people. The conflict was resolved, on paper at least, by the January 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA); that agreement is now in jeopardy.
At an event held in South Sudan’s regional capital, Juba, on 9 January 2007 to celebrate the CPA’s second anniversary, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and Vice-President Salva Kiir — also South Sudan’s regional president — traded public accusations over responsibility for Sudan’s peace-building failures. (more…)
Sudan: Unresolved Conflict Risks War Beyond Darfur – World Politics Review
June 28th, 2007
http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=892
Instability could jeopardise even small-scale rebuilding projects, such as this one at Malakal, Upper Nile State (Simon Roughneen)
The world has dithered in putting together the necessary political response to the humanitarian catastrophe that has ensued in Darfur since 2003. The latest “breakthrough,” with the Sudanese government consenting to a hybrid U.N.-African Union peacekeeping force in Darfur, comes after years of stalling by Khartoum, and half-hearted efforts by the international community.In any case, the 20,000 troops will not get on the ground before 2008, and the peace agreement that they are meant to be enforcing remains a dead letter. So not much is likely to change for the traumatized people of Darfur anytime soon, despite French President Sarkozy”s nouveau conflict resolution drive.
Sudan”s other, older war — the much larger 1983-2005 North-South conflict, which claimed over 2 million lives and displaced over 4 million people — was resolved, on paper at least, by the January 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). But that agreement is now in jeopardy.
At an event held in South Sudan”s regional capital Juba on Jan. 9, 2007, to celebrate the CPA”s second anniversary, Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir and Vice President Salva Kiir, who is also South Sudan”s regional president, traded public accusations over responsibility for Sudan”s peace-building failures. This followed the deaths of hundreds in serious north-south clashes in the southern town of Malakal in November 2006. (more…)
Peace in peril: Sudan, two years on – openDemocracy
January 17th, 2007
http://www.opendemocracy.net/democracy-africa_democracy/sudan_peril_4256.jsp
An event on 9 January 2007 to celebrate the second anniversary of Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in Juba, the capital of southern Sudan, provided vivid evidence that the full resolution of the twenty-two-year civil war in the country was still incomplete. At the gathering, Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir and his vice-president Salva Kiir – who is also southern regional president – traded public accusations over responsibility for Sudan’s peacebuilding failures.
The open disagreement – which followed serious north-south clashes in the key southern Nile town of Malakal in late November 2006, when hundreds of people were killed in fighting – signals a serious rift between the partners in Sudan’s post-conflict government. The question it raises is: do these political rivalries form the prelude to a resumption of widespread armed conflict? (more…)
