Burma: Colonels vs clerics – ISN
September 27th, 2007
The coming days will be crucial in Burma (Myanmar) depending on how the military junta chooses to respond to demonstrations led by Buddhist monks that have gained serious critical mass.
- By Simon Roughneen in Dili
After more than a week of protests in Rangoon (Yangon) and other cities, on Wednesday the Burmese military dictatorship lived up to threats to “take action” against protesters, with between four and eight deaths reported and dozens of bloodied Buddhist monks reeling from the military’s counter-action on the city’s streets.
The killings apparently took place near the Shwedagon Pagoda, Buddhist Burma’s holiest site. The ruling junta stated that one person died during the show of force by the security services. (more…)
Philippine escalation may spark wider war – ISN
August 22nd, 2007
Recent clashes between government troops and militants spark fears that the Philippine’s move to quell insurgency in the south could pave the way for full-scale conflict.
Map of Philippines (BBC)
By Simon Roughneen in Dili
As Philippine Armed Forces (AFP) – advised by US military personnel – move against insurgents in the southern Philippines, there is the danger that the clashes could ignite more violence in the restive region.
Battles continued 18-19 August in the area, with US military advisors working on the ground alongside AFP contingents moving against al-Qaida-linked Islamists.
However the offensive could lead to large-scale fighting, as two larger militia groups opposed to the government have exchanged fire with the army in recent weeks.
Sixteen Philippine soldiers and at least two – according to the AFP over 40 – members of the Islamist group Abu Sayyaf have been killed in an ongoing offensive on the twin islands of Jolo and Basilan, 900 kilometers south of Manila. The militants are suspected of beheading 10 soldiers last month after they had been killed in clashes with a separate militia. (more…)
Trouble in Timor – ISN
August 7th, 2007
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?id=53560&lng=en
As violence erupts over the president’s naming of Timor Leste’s future prime minister, the world’s youngest democracy remains unsteady.
Political wrangles aside, the vast majority of Timor Leste's rural poor are subsistence farmers. Like these labourers in Ermera district, they need basic amenities and infrastructure (Photo: Simon Roughneen)
Violence erupted overnight on Monday across East Timor’s capital Dili in response to the announcement by President Jose Ramos-Horta that former president Xanana Gusmao will be the country’s new prime minister. East Timor’s new government will sworn in at ceremony to be held at 10am tomorrow morning local time.
Burning roadblocks, stone and arrow-throwing and vehicle destruction continued overnight and into Tuesday, as supporters of the ousted Revolutionary Front for Independent East Timor (FRETILIN) took to the streets to vent their anger against Ramos-Horta’s announcement.
Australian peacekeepers were attacked close to an internally displaced persons (IDP) camp, but it remains unclear whether the violence is a spontaneous reaction to the announcement by disaffected IDPs, or a coordinated, politically motivated protest. Protestors threatened to burn down government buildings in the eastern towns of Baucau and Lospalos
Gusmao, who spent much of the 1990s in an Indonesian jail for his role in leading military resistance to that country’s 1975-1999 occupation of East Timor, leads the National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT) party, which came second in the recent parliamentary elections with 24 percent of the vote. Gusmao was elected as Timor Leste’s first president in 2002, but stepped down in 2007, leading the newly formed CNRT in the parliamentary elections. (more…)
EU envoy: Malay policy ‘discriminatory’ – ISN
July 4th, 2007
EU envoy’s comments on Malaysian economic and social policies cause furor and focus attention on alleged discrimination in advance of trade talks and parliamentary elections.
By Simon Roughneen in Kuala Lumpur
The senior European Commssion (EC) representative in Malaysia has become embroiled in a row with government ministers over critical remarks made about the country’s economic policy. The remarks have heightened tensions and focused minds on internal Malaysian political and economic issues in the run-up to the EU-ASEAN trade negotiations and are seen as an implicit intervention in Malaysian party politics in the lead-up to elections, which could be held later this year.
Thierry Rommel, head of the EC Delegation to Malaysia, accused the Malaysian government of maintaining a discriminatory and protectionist economic policy. In a widely reported speech made on 21 June to the EU-Malaysia Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Rommel asserted that: “Malaysia claims that these are infant industries that need to be protected [...] but is the Malay-centered policy that drives protectionist polices.” (more…)
Sinn Féin: A bad day at the office – ISN
June 7th, 2007
With Sinn Féin faring poorly in Ireland’s recent elections, the party’s long-term ambitions are in jeopardy.
For the high jump? Gerry Adams campaigning in Co Wexford (Irish Independent)
Commentary by Simon Roughneen for ISN Security Watch
“Tiocfaidh ár lá!” is a well-known Irish rallying cry in Sinn Féin neighborhoods in Northern Ireland. Translated into English as “Our Day Will Come,” this piece of political eschatology points to the day when Northern Ireland will form part of a unified all-Ireland state joined to the Republic of Ireland, which takes up most of the island.
But after a dismal performance in the 24 May parliamentary election in the Republic, Sinn Féin’s meager four seats in the new Irish Parliament (out of 166 up-for-grabs) means that the day envisioned remains somewhat distant.
While Sinn Féin’s role in Northern Ireland is relatively well-known, and its ambitions to merge the mini-province with its larger neighbor to the south are long-held, less clear to outside observers is its presence in the Republic of Ireland and the centrality of its Dublin strategy for achieving its aims in Belfast.
Sinn Féin had hoped to gain 10 to12 seats in the Republic – potentially enough to make itself a viable coalition partner for the larger parties. Becoming even a minor coalition partner in a sovereign state – which has been Europe’s most dynamic economy for almost a decade – has been a long-standing ambition for the party. (more…)
Howard’s Way: in or out? – Village/ISN
May 29th, 2007
Australian Prime Minister and key US ally John Howard has intimated that he could stand down as leader of the Liberal Party in an effort to boost its re-election chances.
By Simon Roughneen in Darwin
Since last week, the Australian media have been buzzing with rumors over the future of evergreen Australian Prime Minister John Howard.
With an election looming and the Liberals lagging behind the main opposition Labor Party in polls, the prime minister told his coalition’s weekly meeting of MPs that “the public opinion polls suggest we would not just lose, but be annihilated,” according to news reports.
This was leavened by Howard’s admission to Sky News that his own political longevity could hinder his party’s re-election bid. (more…)
Downhill to the summit – ISN
January 17th, 2007
Summits such as Monday’s African Union (AU) gathering in Addis Ababa are often depicted as “pivotal” or “ground-breaking” or some such hyperbolic epithet. But for once, such appellations may actually be applicable. This time, the AU refused to allocate its revolving chairmanship to Sudanese leader Oman al-Bashir.
Had it not, the AU would have been left in the absurd position of being formally headed by a state that is a central player in a conflict region where AU peacekeeping troops are deployed.
Rebels in Sudan’s troubled Darfur region had pre-empted the summit by declaring that AU peacekeepers would become legitimate targets should Sudan be given the AU chair.
This time last year disagreement among AU states over rights abuses and ongoing violence in Darfur saw al-Bashir’s candidacy postponed until 2007. However, the situation in Darfur has deteriorated since early 2006. (more…)
Somalia in Catch-22 after Islamists are routed – ISN
January 8th, 2007
With an apparently facile victory achieved over the Council of Somalia Islamic Courts, the Ethiopian-backed Transitional Federal Government faces a more difficult challenge in establishing a functioning government in Somalia.
Ethiopian soldier (AFP/Getty)
By Simon Roughneen
After a blitzkrieg campaign launched Christmas Eve involving an estimated 15,000 Ethiopian troops backed by tanks, fighter jets and helicopter gunships, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has established itself in Mogadishu, after spending most of its precarious and ineffective existence thus far in the western town of Baidoa.
The quick defeat of the Islamists has averted fears of a Somali vortex pulling the Horn of Africa into a regional war. But in its place, a long-running guerrilla campaign and renewed insecurity are likely. Princeton Lyman, Africa Program Director at the Council on Foreign Relations, told ISN Security Watch, “I expect a good deal of instability and warlord-type of activity for awhile at least.”
Ethiopian and TFG troops much assert control rapidly, before Islamists regroup or are rearmed by the Hawiye, as a means of curbing renewed warlord chaos. The Ethiopian presence may radicalize a greater proportion of Somali Muslims. (more…)
Tensions high as DRC awaits poll results – ISN
November 3rd, 2006
With votes being counted in the second round of presidential elections in DRC, peace pledges by both candidates have not allayed fears of post-result violence.
Kabila supporters (People's Daily, China)
By Simon Roughneen
As votes are being counted after a second round of presidential elections in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), observers and citizens are hoping that the country’s first democratic polls sine 1960 will finally renounce bloodshed and mark a transition from conflict to peace.
Observers and the country’s Independent Electoral Commission reported that the second round of presidential elections had gone well, save for a couple of incidents in the northeast, but there are fears that a narrow victory for either candidate could result in violence.
Sunday’s run-off came after none of the 32 candidates registered an overall majority in the 31 July first round. DRC interim President Joseph Kabila won 44 percent of the vote, but fell short of a majority by just 900,000 votes out of 18 million cast.
In the Assembly elections also held on 31 July, Kabila’s Alliance for Presidential Majority took 300 of the 500 seats, while Bemba’s Union of Nationalists won 116. (more…)
Despite IRA report, Ulster might still say No – ISN
October 11th, 2006
Discussion aimed at reviving Northern Ireland’s dormant political institutions will take place this week in Scotland, but a deal is not assured.
Source CAIN (Copyright Peter Moloney)
By Simon Roughneen
A report released last week gave a remarkably positive assessment of the Irish Republican Army’s (IRA) self-emasculation, 14 months after it declared an end to its three-decade war against Northern Ireland’s status as part of the UK.
The report, released by the Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC), an Irish-British intergovernmental watchdog set up to monitor Ireland’s paramilitary groups, stated: “It [the IRA] is now firmly set on a political strategy, eschewing terrorism and other forms of crime. In this process there has been a loss of paramilitary capability.”
However, various vested interests on the part of all protagonists may combine to scupper a potential deal this week, as the British and Irish governments and Northern Ireland’s main political parties discuss reviving the devolved government set up after the 1998 peace agreement.
The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is the largest on the Protestant-British side of Northern Ireland’s communal divide – and is the last hold-out against a deal, which will be pushed vigorously by both governments and by Sinn Féin at St Andrews in Scotland this week. (more…)
