Fallen Angels in Bangkok – ISN
April 16th, 2010
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?lng=en&id=115035
As the Government moves in to arrest protest leaders and alleged ‘terrorists’ in Bangkok, more violence looms in the city.
Red shirts gathered at Rajaprasong, last Thursday night (Photo: Simon Roughneen)
Even as the eponymous protagonist in Shakespeare’s Macbeth descended into madness, there were fleeting moments of sentience; enough, at least, for him to deliver some memorably prescient insights.
‘Blood will have blood‘, he said, implying that once blood is spilled, more will follow. And so three weeks after the anti-government red shirts poured their blood on the gates of the Thai Prime Minister’s Abhisit Vejajjiva’s residence and the country’s Government House, the gruesome symbolism was transfigured into tragic reality last weekend, with 19 civilians and 5 soldiers killed in the ‘The Battle of Bangkok’. Over 800 people were injured, as tourists looked on, and there are calls for the Government to establish an inquiry into what happened in Bangkok – or to give it its less well- known abbreviated name – Krung Thep or ‘City of Angels’. (more…)
Redshirts Ready for ‘Million-man’ March – The Irrawaddy
March 4th, 2010
http://www.irrawaddy.org/highlight.php?art_id=17945
Anti-government Redshirt supporters say that the Thai government must choose between suppression of its proposed “million-man” peaceful protest on March 14, or dissolution of the current Democrat-led government.
A supporter of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra holds his portrait during a protest at Democracy Monument in Bangkok last year. (Photo: Getty Images)
“Our aim is to bring down the administration,” said Sean Boonpracong, a spokesman for the Redhshirt United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD)
“We will use only peaceful means,” he said, acknowledging that Redshirt violence at the disbanded Asian summit in Pattaya and in Bangkok during the Songkran 2009 protests damaged the anti-government cause.
How a peaceful protest will force the government to choose between suppression of the protest on the one hand, and dissolution of the parliament on the other, was not clarified.
However, senior UDD member Jaran Ditthapichai told media at a Bangkok press conference on Thursday that if the protest is met with violence, then a civil war in Thailand could be possible.
“If the government suppresses us, then they will have declared civil war.” he said. “If this happens, you will not see elections of democracy in Thailand for five, maybe ten years.”
The Redshirts have pledged a peaceful march, with estimates between 500,000 and 1.3 million given as a possible turnout. UDD leaders believe that substantial portions of the army and police support their cause, which they feel will help bring down a government that was “established in the army barracks,” according to Sean Boonpracong.
The current prime minister assumed his position after anti-Thaksin Yellowshirt protestors occupied Government House and the country’s international airports, in protest at what they decried as corruption during the Thaksin era, and under the elected pro-Thaksin administrations that followed the restoration of civilian rule after the 2006 coup that removed Thaksin from office. (more…)
Japan and Southeast Asia Take Stock of China’s Rise – The Irrawaddy
February 20th, 2010
http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=17856
As China’s economic and political rise makes itself felt in Asia, Japan and Southeast Asia face serious foreign policy dilemmas in the coming years.
In 1990, Japan’s economy was double the size of the rest Asia combined, as the country looked set to challenge America’s global economic primacy. After two decades of flat performance, however, this has changed. Some projections claim that China is already the second largest economy in the world, having overtaken Japan, and others predict that the Chinese economy will be 5-6 times larger than Japan’s within the next 40-50 years.
Adding to concerns about Japan’s position in Asia is recent friction in its relationship with its most important ally, the United States. Despite wrangles between Tokyo and Washington over naval bases and troop deployment in Japan, however, the alliance between the two countries is steady and remains crucial to security in the wider region, Prof Takashi Shiraishi, currently a member of the Japanese cabinet office, told a forum at Chulalongkorn University.
Supporting this view is the fact that distrust of China still outweighs Japanese public resentment of the US presence. According to opinion polls, more than half the population have a negative opinion of China. Prof Kitti Prasirtsuk, a Thai academic based at Thammasat University who specializes in Japanese politics, said that there is a growing wariness in Japan of Beijing’s longer-term strategic intentions. (more…)
China-US Rivalry Intensifies – The Irrawaddy
February 15th, 2010
http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=17812
With the Dalai Lama set to meet President Obama later this week, more political fireworks can be expected just days after the Chinese New Year. US-China relations have been stormy over recent weeks, with Beijing and Washington trading barbs over Taiwan and Google, disagreeing over policy on Iran, North Korea, and bickering over exchange rates, among a range of contentious political and economic issues.
But the officially atheist politburo in Beijing might take it as an auspicious sign that this is the Year of the Tiger. China has fared relatively well amid the global economic downturn, and with the US bogged down with wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and Obama’s domestic reform agenda running into sand, Beijing might want to test American mettle as the perceived gap between the two countries narrows.
Obama dodged a bullet when shunning an opportunity to meet the Dalai Lama last year. But one year into an administration that has been dogged by accusations of softness and conflicting signals in foreign policy, a meeting with the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader will add to Obama’s attempt at an image makeover. (more…)
Assessing Thai Coup Rumors – ISN/The Irrawaddy
February 3rd, 2010
http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=17733
NEWS ANALYSIS/BANGKOK—Coup-mongering is nothing new to Thailand, but speculation about an impending putsch was revved-up last week when a column of more than twenty armored vehicles was seen on the streets of Bangkok.
The column was on its way from Bang Sue railway station to their barracks in Pathum Thani. Apparently the vehicles are being readied for deployment to Darfur, a dusty and desolate terrain vastly different from anything in Thailand. Thai troops are serving as part of the joint UN-African Union peacekeeping force in the vast western Sudan province.
It usually takes more than a few armored trucks to mount a coup, however, and, unexpected as the sight may have been, it takes more than a lone armored column on city streets to suggest that a coup is looming.
But with Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva in Europe at the Davos World Economic Forum, and an upcoming February 5-14 visit to the US by Army Chief Gen Anupong Paochinda, the coup gossip has gathered steam over recent days, suggesting that elements in the army could move in the absence of either man. (more…)
Northern Ireland still troubled – ISN
January 14th, 2010
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?lng=en&id=111287
As the Irish and UK prime ministers meet to discuss the impasse over control of police and justice in Northern Ireland, the long-running dispute is overshadowed by sex and corruption scandals, and IRA splinter groups are keeping police busy by attempting to undermine the political process and capitalize on a vacuum should the policing powers dispute not be settled.
By Simon Roughneen for ISN Security Watch
The dictum that truth is stranger than fiction was given renewed impetus by the outing of MP Iris Robinson’s affair with Kirk McCambley, now 21. She announced last month that she would be stepping down from politics as she seeks treatment for depression, and says that she attempted suicide in March 2008 after the liaison ended.
Robinson, 60, is the wife of Peter Robinson, first minister in Northern Ireland’s regional government and the leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the largest pro-British political party in Northern Ireland.
The couple are to be investigated by Northern Ireland’s committee on standards and privileges after Iris Robinson admitted she secured £50,000 ($81,400) from two developers to help McCambley set up a restaurant business in Belfast. (more…)
North Korean Weapons Mystery: Is Burma the Missing Link?
December 16th, 2009
http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=17410
The North Korean arms cargo interdicted in Bangkok seems unlikely to be bound for Burma, despite ties between
Thai military unloads weapons from North Korean cargo plane in Bangkok
Pyongyang and the Naypyidaw military junta. Burmese junta strongman Snr-Gen Than Shwe visited Sri Lanka in November, reciprocating a visit made by Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa in June this year.
The final destination of the cache remains unclear. The crew claim that the airplane was to land in Sri Lanka to refuel, eventually to conclude its journey in the Ukraine, apparently after the cargo had been dropped off elsewhere. Sri Lankan officials denied any knowledge that the embargo-breaking flight was going to land in that country.
Thai government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn said the plane was going to “a destination in the Middle East” to unload the weapons. Earlier this year, authorities in the United Arab Emirates seized 10 containers of North Korean arms on board a Bahamian-flagged ship. Like the Ilyushin-76 flight cargo, the manifest was listed as “oil drilling equipment.” The consignment was supposedly destined for Iran.
Other speculation surrounds a possible African destination. Sudan is also under a UN arms embargo, but acquires weapons from China and Russia among others, and has become increasingly close to states such as Iran and Burma in recent years. The latter two are thought to be key buyers in North Korea’s US $1bn per annum illicit arms bazaar, prompting speculation that a bevy of human rights violators are collaborating in an underground weapons trade.
Sudan’s deputy foreign minister visited Burma in October 2009 to discuss “beneficial cooperation on investment and energy sectors,” according to The New Light of Myanmar, a junta-backed publication based in Rangoon. Both Sudan and Burma are important sources of energy supply to China, which has fostered these links while Western competitors remain largely absent, due to international sanctions on both Khartoum and Naypyidaw. Sudan, like Burma, will stage controversial elections next year, amid speculation that oil-rich southern Sudan will later secede, a move that Khartoum is likely to resist with military force. (more…)
Burma Threatens Thailand’s stability – The Irrawaddy
December 9th, 2009
http://irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=17375&Submit=Submit
BANGKOK—Speaking at a dinner talk on Tuesday night, city governor M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra said that Thailand’s already-precarious stability faces an additional spoiler across the border in Burma.
Addressing a forum at the Bangkok Sheraton Grande Hotel, the Democrat Party Deputy Secretary-General and former deputy foreign minister said,“a major source of regional instability is the large standing army maintained by the Myanmar [Burmese] government.”
He compared Thailand’s 430,000-strong military with Burma’s, which has been estimated at more than 500,000 strong and is thought to be the largest standing army in Southeast Asia.
Commenting on the Burmese junta’s attempts to upgrade and expand its military, Paribatra said, “Myanmar [Burma] has been modernizing [its military] for a long time, and this could fuel a regional arms race.” (more…)
Muddy waters in Thailand’s deep south – ISN
November 24th, 2009
More shootings in Thailand’s troubled south show that no end is in sight for an often brutal insurgency, despite the army’s ‘hearts and minds’ efforts.
-By Simon Roughneen in Bangkok for ISN Security Watch
Lieutenant-General Pichet Wisaijorn, regional commander of the Thai 4th army, told reporters in Thailand’s capital on
Thai army soldiers in Bangkok (cc) Ross Websdale/flickr
18 November that “things are getting better, the number of violent incidents are down, and the traditional life of villagers in the south is returning.”
He was discussing conditions in the country’s ‘Deep South,’ the four southernmost provinces bordering Malaysia, where 90 percent of the two million-strong population are Malay Muslims. Overall, 94 percent of Thailand’s 66 million people are Buddhist.
An oft-described “murky, shadowy” insurgency and terror campaign has rolled on since 2004, with over 3,700 killings. Intermittently heavy Thai army crackdowns impinge on civil liberties, but now the military is attempting hearts and minds development projects to win over ordinary Malay-Muslim Thais.
Coming from the section head of the Thai army responsible for military operations in a region beset by five years of bombings, beheadings and gun battles, such words might be of consolation – if they rang true. Violence dipped in 2008, but has climbed back up in recent months – though how many incidents can be attributed to insurgents on the one hand, or criminals on the other, is not clear. Small arms and drug trafficking are rife in the region, and violence is not always political, according to Marc Askew, a University of Melbourne researcher based in the southern city of Pattani. (more…)
Looking Beyond the US-Asean Summit – The Irrawaddy
November 12th, 2009
http://irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=17196
Simon Roughneen in SINGAPORE – When Singapore’s former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew visited Washington recently, he spoke at an awards ceremony sponsored by the US-Asean Business Council and attended by US President Barack Obama. The gist of his message was that Asian countries see American involvement as vital to balancing Chinese influence. With Obama taking time out from a knife-edge domestic debate on health-care reform, it remains to be seen what comes from his 10-day Asian tour on which he will visit Japan, Singapore, China and South Korea.
US-China relations and a variety of spin-off issues from the global economic turmoil will likely dominate headlines over the coming days. With China acting as an engine for global economic recovery, the world awaits a return to dynamism in the US.
“It’s amazing what China’s good fortune has done for the world,” said William Overholt, from Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. “In refloating the world economy, there are only two countries that can allocate resources on a scale to get the global economy going again—the US and China.’
Exclude China and this year’s growth forecast for developing Asia drops from 6.7 (more…)
