Export worries after Thai rate rise – Financial Times
December 3rd, 2010

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http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2010/12/03/export-worries-after-thai-rate-rise/
When Thailand’s central bank governor, Prasarn Trairatvorakul, was appointed in July, he said that the country’s interest rate would be lifted to 2 per cent from 1.25 per cent by the end of the year. So, from a longer-term perspective, Wednesday’s surprise interest rate hike should have been expected.
But the move did cause a stir. It represented a hedge against inflation concerns: prices rose 2.8 per cent in November, making real interest rates are negative. However, given that low interest rates haven’t deterred an influx of foreign capital into Thailand, the government fears that higher rates will push up the currency even further – hurting exports.
“We are concerned about the impact from the rate increase at a time when the economy has started to slow down,” said finance minister Korn Chattikavanij. The IMF expects Thai growth to be 7.5 per cent this year, led by strong exports, before slowing to 4 per cent in 2011. (more…)
Why Thailand invests in Burma – Financial Times
December 3rd, 2010

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http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2010/12/02/why-thailand-invests-in-burma/
There is some confusion over whether Thailand or China is the biggest source of foreign investment in Burma. But it’s clear that Thai interest is gathering pace: the Saha Group is the latest Thai cash-rich business to enter the hermetic south-east Asian country, announcing a plan to open 25 stores there by 2012.
And Burma offers more than just a untapped market. For Thai businesses, the country also offers respite from the environmental and other corporate standards that exist at home.
The Thai prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, heard as much last month, when he visited the Map Ta Phut industrial estate (pictured), in south Thailand. Seventy-six projects on the estate remain closed, after a court ruling regarding residents’ complaints about leukemia and cancer rates in the area. A business lobby group is unhappy – and handed Abhisit a letter, outlining its grievances over the government’s handling of the case.
Compare that to Burma. where there’s little chance of a court intervening so forcefully. (more…)
Wikileaks: Citing Bribe Attempts, US Sought Obama Intervention in Bout Case – The Irrawaddy
December 2nd, 2010

http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=20235
BANGKOK—The United States Embassy in Bangkok sought the direct intervention of President Barack Obama as frustration grew over the Viktor Bout extradition case, according to two diplomatic cables released on Thursday by Wikileaks.
US Ambassador to Thailand Eric John recommended that President Obama telephone Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejajjiva about the case, as part of a “multi-pronged effort” that would have brought US Attorney-General Eric Holder and the US Mission at the United Nations as well as countries such as Belgium, Colombia, Sierra Leone and Liberia into play to up the ante on the Thai authorities after the Aug. 11, 2009, Lower Court ruling against the extradition of Bout to the United States.
The cables suggested that the Colombian government be approached to seek extradition of Bout, while countries named in various United Nations reports outlining allegations that Bout trafficked weapons to conflict zones, also be engaged in the process.
The United States believed that Russians were attempting to sway Thai officials, citing “significant indications that the Russians were trying to use bribes to influence the outcome of the case” and mentioning that “there have been disturbing indications that Bout’s and Russian supporters have been using money and influence in an attempt to block extradition.” (more…)
Suu Kyi Set Free But Media Still Held Captive in Burma – PBS Mediashift
December 2nd, 2010


http://www.pbs.org/mediashift/2010/12/suu-kyi-set-free-but-media-still-held-captive-in-burma335.html
Burma has in recent weeks been one of the top world news stories. The country’s November 7 general election was followed less than a week later by the release of Aung San Suu Kyi, one of the world’s best-known political dissidents, whose appearance at her front gate on Saturday, November 13, was carried on news networks around the world.
However, getting news out of Burma is no easy task. As detailed by MediaShift contributor Clothilde Le Coz, foreign journalists were banned from entering the country to cover the elections. Though an estimated 30 to 40 managed to sneak in on tourist visas, seven were deported after being detained by the police. Fourteen media workers are currently behind bars, some serving sentences of up to 35 years. There are a total of around 2,200 political prisoners who remain locked up, despite the release of Suu Kyi.
Still, high-profile reporters such as BBC’s John Simpson managed to interview Suu Kyi after her release, with no apparent retaliation or punitive measures by the ruling junta. One reporter in Rangoon, who asked to remain anonymous due to the restrictions on foreign journalists operating in Burma, told me the apparent indifference to the journalists-posing-as-tourists was more due to ineptitude on the part of the police, rather than newfound tolerance. (more…)
Surprise Thai interest rate hike – Financial Times
December 1st, 2010

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http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2010/12/01/snap-surprise-thai-rate-rise/#more-161051
Central bankers like to keep the markets guessing and the Bank of Thailand is no exception. In a surprise move it raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday to 2 per cent and hinted at more increases to come.
Following two earlier quarter-point hikes in the summer, the move hardly comes as a big shock but it signals that officials are somewhat more concerned about inflationary risks than they were three months ago – and than investors had thought. The Thai bhat rose on the news and later traded 0.43 per cent up on the US dollar at 30.04.
Wellian Wiranto, HSBC Southeast Asian economist based in Singapore, told beyondbrics that the move “was a surprise to us”. (more…)
Sri Lanka Connection Key as Ethnic War Fears Grow – The Irrawaddy
November 29th, 2010


http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=20209
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010\11\30\story_30-11-2010_pg14_10
With one thousand refugees fleeing fighting in eastern Burma into Thailand’s Tak Province over the weekend, fears are growing about renewed war in eastern Burma and elsewhere in the ethnic minority-populated borderlands close to Thailand, India and China.
Several deadlines for ethnic militia, such as the 30,000 strong United Wa State Army (UWSA), to join the Border Guard Force have expired, amid speculation that once a new government is in place in Naypidaw, attention will turn to the ethnic issue.
Since her Nov. 13 release from house arrest, Aung San Suu Kyi has called for a second Panglong Conference to discuss long-standing ethnic minority demands for a federal-type solution to Burma’s governance problems. Sixteen militias have long-established cease-fires with the junta.
However, the recent purchase by the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) of 24 Russian military helicopters, as well as the establishment of new helicopter bases near the Salween River, suggests that the Tatmadaw, the name for the Burmese military, is gearing up for a “military solution” to the ethnic issue. (more…)
Thai electoral fraud case dismissed – Financial Times
November 29th, 2010

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a1f7a72a-fb99-11df-b79a-00144feab49a.html
By Simon Roughneen in Bangkok
A Thai court has dismissed an electoral fraud case that could have seen the removal of prime minister Abhisit Vejajiva and the dissolution of the ruling Democrat Party.
The party had faced charges that it misused a 29m baht ($950,000) grant from the Election Commission for campaigning in a 2005 election. However, the allegations were not considered by Thailand’s Constitutional Court on the grounds that the Election Commission had exceeded a 15-day statute of limitations to file the proceedings.
“The filing by the Electoral Commission is unconstitutional because the process was not done properly,” said judge Udomsak Nitimontree, reading out the ruling at the court in Bangkok.
Three of the court’s nine judges did not participate in the decision, after video clips were published on the internet apparently showing Democrat Party officials meeting the trio about the case. (more…)
Amid Calls for ‘Panglong II,’ Ramos-Horta Offers to Mediate – The Irrawaddy
November 26th, 2010

http://www.irrawaddy.org/highlight.php?art_id=20195
As ethnic leaders called for new talks to end Burma’s political standoff, the president of Timor-Leste spoke to fellow Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi about a possible mediating role.
BANGKOK — Despite doubts about how Burma’s ruling generals will respond to recent calls for renewed talks to resolve the country’s ethnic issues, supporters of Aung San Suu Kyi say they believe her proposal for a second Panglong Conference is vital to any future reconciliation and reform in the country.
“The international community perhaps does not fully understand the importance of resolving ethnic issues and preventing renewed conflict in Burma,” said Khin Ohmar, the coordinator of the Burma Partnership, a Thailand-based coalition of Burmese civil society groups.
Burma is the site of some of the world’s longest-running civil conflicts, and recent months have seen increased troop levels in ethnic minority regions near the Thai, Chinese and Indian borders. Ethnic groups have consistently called for a federal polity in Burma, instead of a centrally governed unitary state. The 2008 Constitution provides for regional parliaments, but these fall short of what the ethnic leadership wants. (more…)
Nuclear Matter – The Irrawaddy
November 24th, 2010

http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=20170
New revelations about North Korea’s nuclear weapons program could have implications for Burma, after US scientist Siegfried Hecker revealed over the weekend that he been shown “more than 2,000 centrifuges” for enriching uranium—part of the process for making nuclear fuel or weapons—during a recent visit to North Korea, where he said he also viewed a new light-water reactor, which, when fueled with uranium, is the most common type of nuclear reactor.
“This is obviously a disappointing announcement,” said Stephen Bosworth, the US Envoy on North Korea, adding that “it is also another in a series of provocative moves.”
Dr. Robert Kelley, the former International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) scientist, told The Irrawaddy that the Americans who saw the North Korean centrifuge plant last week were stunned by the sophistication they witnessed. “It has a completely modern control room, nothing like what those Americans have seen in other DPRK [North Korean] facilities”, he said, and concluded that the US “underestimated them.”
Last week, a UN report, held up by Chinese deliberations since last May, was sent to the UN Security Council, and accused North Korea of spreading ballistic and nuclear technology to Iran, Syria and Burma. The experts said North Korea is is using multiple intermediaries, shell companies and overseas criminal networks to get around UN sanctions and export the technology.
Kelley contributed to a Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB) report which aired on Al-Jazeera on June 4, which was based on documents and photographs smuggled out of Burma by Sai Win, a defector from the country’s military. Kelley maintains that “what we have seen in Burma is intent to build a nuclear program.” (more…)
Bout may sue Hollywood, wife hints at Thaksin deal – The Irrawaddy
November 22nd, 2010

http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=20146
Wife of alleged arms dealer Viktor Bout says that legal action is possible against those who have damaged her husband’s image and that Thailand may have cut a

Alla Bout hands out statement prior to today's oress conference (Photo: Simon Roughneen)
deal with the US regarding Thaksin.
BANGKOK – Angered by what she describes as “ a campaign of demonisation” against her husband, the alleged arms trafficker Viktor Bout, Alla Bout today suggested legal action is possible against “those who have caused terrible damage to my husband’s image”.
She also suggested that Thailand and the US may have cut a deal linking her husband’s extradition with US assistance regarding former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
Asked about her view that the United States should punish those who published or made allegations against Viktor Bout, she elaborated that “I have advised my husband that he should take legal action against some of those who have published unfounded allegations”, adding that “action should definitely be taken against those who created the movie Lord of War”.
The film stars Nicolas Cage as Yuri Orlov, a Ukrainian gun runner apparently modelled on Mr Bout, with other characters resembling former Liberian President Charles Taylor and his son Chuck. Charles Taylor is currently on trial at the Special Court for Sierra Leone at The Hague, for war crimes allegedly perpetrated during the 1990’s civil war in Sierra Leone, is thought to be beneficiary of of Mr Bout’s alleged arms cargo business.
Viktor Bout was extradited to the United States on November 16. He spent almost three years in jail in Thailand, after his arrest in a joint US-Thai sting operation in Bangkok in March 2008. The extradition was carried out without the advance knowledge of Mrs Bout or of the Russian Embassy in Thailand, according to both parties.
Alla Bout nevertheless maintained a cheery disposition when meeting the Thailand-based media “for the last time”, as she put it today, while handing out copies of a Russian Embassy press statement to the gathered journalists. “There won’t be enough of these”, she lamented, before launching into a scathing attack on the Thai Government and the United States Drug Enforcement Administration, saying that the Democrat Party-led Thai Government is “subservient to the United States”. (more…)






















