No Deus ex Machina in Manila – ISN
May 7th, 2010
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?lng=en&id=115980
A Presidential race depicted as a run-off between a saint, a CEO and a faded movie-star is being overshadowed by worries over a computerised vote-counting system.

On the way out: Arroyo billboard near old city of Intramuros in Manila (Photo: Simon Roughneen)
Simon Roughneen in Manila – In a first for The Philippines – a country with intermittent electricity supply and a history of electoral fraud – a computerised system is being used instead of the manual count used in most other countries. Despite 11th-hour glitches meant the recall and re-programming of 76000 flash cards used to scan votes in the optical scan machines, the electoral oversight body (Comelec) remained confident that “the elections will go through”, according to Comelec chair Jose Melo.
Whether the equipment will be ready and distributed across the whole archipelago in time, remains to be seen. However Comelec is resisting calls from candidates and media to conduct a manual count in parallel and as a back-up to the computerised alternative.
The ‘saint’ in question is Benigno ‘Noynoy’ Aquino, son of former President and democracy icon Cory, who died in August 2009. A poll published this morning Friday put Mr Aquino on 41%, over double that of the second-place candidate. Aquino has capitalised on the family lineage – an aura of martyrdom, heroism and clean hands that dates back to the 1986 People’s Power Revolution – in a country listed by Transparency International as more graft-prone than Pakistan or Liberia. (more…)
Makeovers and Takeovers in Burma – ISN
May 5th, 2010

Burma’s military elites are ditching their uniforms so they can run as civilians in elections scheduled for later this year. That makeover might be just cosmetic, but is likely to guarantee continued army rule in what is being slammed in some quarters as a ‘military election’.
The junta is encountering problems, however, in its takeover bid with the country’s ethnic militias, the largest of whom have defied five deadlines to stand down and become part of the country’s border guard forces.
Since June 2009, the stakes have been raised by army attacks on rebel-held areas, in some cases carried out in partnership with proxy militias working with the regime. These attacks drove thousands from their homes, with Karen refugees fleeing to the jungle or across the border to Thailand, in a grisly re-enactment of large-scale displacements during the 1990s and later.
In August, the junta’s army made light work of a small ethnic Chinese or Kokang militia, but angered Beijing in the process. This was seen as a test run and a warning shot – aimed at unsettling the larger militias such as the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) and the Shan State Army – North (SSA-N). However these groups would be unlikely to cave in so quickly. Threats from Napyidaw, the new isolated jungle capital built by the regime, have prompted talk of a multi-ethnic alliance if the junta tries to settle the border guard issue by force. (more…)
Sunlight creeping through the Bangkok gloom? – The Irrawaddy
May 4th, 2010

http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=18376
Redshirt protestors have conditionally-accepted the Government’s new peace plan. However, looking at these developments in the context of Thailand’s four+ year long cycle of protests, it might be premature to conclude that a long-term solution to Thailand’s political divisions has been found.

Dwindling numbers of redshirts listening on Tuesday morning, May 4 (Photo: Simon Roughneen)
themselves from the dank heat as a rainstorm loomed overhead, while others slept on the overpass running above the rally site. On the eve of Thailand’s Coronation Day, it has been almost two months of non-stop speeches, interspersed with three incidents of serious political violence – deemed as terrorism in some quarters – since the red shirts commenced their optimistically-named ‘Million Man March’ on March 12. (more…)
Malaysia: Dirty gossip, dirty politics – The Irrawaddy
May 1st, 2010

Malaysia’s one-party system threatens to come apart as divisions between religious groups and classes divide society.

Malaysia's PM Najib Razak signs his best wishes to the Thai king, while attending the ASEAN summit in Hua Hin, Thailand, last October (Photo: Simon Roughneen)
PENANG—Church burnings, pigs’ heads left outside mosques, cows’ heads paraded in protest at a Hindu temple relocation site, canings for Malay Muslims caught drinking alcohol and having extramarital sex—these are some of the lurid headline-grabbers to come out of Malaysia in recent months.
Elections in 2008 saw the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, dominated by the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), lose its dominant two-thirds parliamentary majority for the first time since Malaysian independence.
An opposition coalition led by Anwar Ibrahim’s People’s Justice Party made significant gains, and in September 2008 seemed to be on the brink of persuading government MPs from Sabah and Sarawak to cross the house and vote against the BN.
That did not happen, however, and while the opposition has won a number of significant by-election victories at national and local levels, it has not been able to launch a final push to dethrone the UMNO-led BN.
Ethnic and religious controversies have revealed divisions in the opposition, which features the Islamist Parti Islam Semalaysia (PAS) and the secular Chinese Democratic Action Party (DAP), alongside Anwar’s party, which portrays itself as inclusive and open to all creeds and ethnic groups. (more…)
Confrontations and Conspiracies in Thailand – ISN
April 30th, 2010

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?lng=en&id=115676
The next steps in Thailand’s political face-off are becoming increasingly hard to predict. After seven weeks of occupying various sections of Bangkok’s commercial and tourist heartland, where can the anti-government redshirts strike next?
On Thursday, the redshirts called off a rally scheduled to take place at one of Thailand’s news stations, which they accuse of biased reporting. However late on Thursday night, a group of around two hundred redshirts invaded Chulalongkorn Hospital, claiming they were searching for soldiers hiding inside. They did not find any, and a redshirt leader later apologised for the action. This came after a gunfight on a highway north of the city, close to the old international airport, when redshirts baited the government by attempting to send around 2,000 of their group to a market north of Bangkok.
After royalist yellowshirts had defied an emergency decree with impunity by holding several small rallies around Bangkok, urging the government to remove the redshirts now seven weeks into their mass rally in the heart of the city, it appears the redshirts sought to test the security force reaction by sending a convoy onto the northbound highway.
A predictable skirmish ensued, and 18 protesters were injured and one soldier killed amid a shoot-out on the highway close to the city’s old international airport. It was the third serious incident of violence since the redshirt rally started over a week ago, following explosions that rocked the financial area of the city. On 10 April street fighting left 25 dead, after gunmen among the redshirts targeted an army officer closely connected to the country’s royal family. (more…)
Post-Nargis Hopes Dashed as Election Looms – The Irrawaddy
April 29th, 2010

http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=18346
The faint promise suggested by the relative freedoms granted to Burmese civil society after Cyclone Nargis is fading, as the ruling junta imposes new restrictions ahead of the scheduled 2010 elections.
In a report released today titled “I Want to help my Own People”– State Control and Civil Society in Burma after Cyclone Nargis,” Human Rights Watch said that the junta “continues to deny basic freedoms and places undue restrictions on aid agencies, despite significant gains in rehabilitating areas devastated by Cyclone Nargis two years ago.” (more…)
City reeling from protests and violence – The Scotsman
April 29th, 2010
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http://news.scotsman.com/world/Soldier-killed-and-others-injured.6260702.jp
On Wednesday afternoon, the city reeled from another clash between the army and protestors, this time on a packed

Ambulances stuck in traffic en route to fighting scene near Don Muang airport yesterday. (Photo: Simon Roughneen)
highway at the city’s old international airport. One soldier died from ‘friendly fire’ with 18 redshirt anti-Government protestors injured. The army said it fired rubber bullets, with live rounds shot into the air as a warning. The army then blocked the main highway to the combat zone, forcing journalists trying to reach the scene to divert into a slip road, and a dashboard-thump inducing crawl through stalled traffic.
Two of us jumped on board one of several ambulances trying to get to the wounded – we were welcome to join. When we asked why they had to drive through the traffic rather than use the empty highway, we were told that the army would not let the medics use the quicker route, now blocked by troops. An hour later and the medics still had not reached the wounded – they told us we were better to jump out and take a motorbike back to the city, adding that the wounded protestors had been taken to a different hospital.
At the best of times, rush-hour traffic in Bangkok is hectic, fume-laden crawl through 35° heat. When part of the city’s commercial heart is occupied by thousands of protestors, or blocked by soldiers, getting around become even more awkward. (more…)
Energy Companies in Burma Urged to Disclose Payments – The Irrawaddy
April 27th, 2010

http://www.irrawaddy.org/highlight.php?art_id=18329
Landmark legislation currently before the US Congress could force oil, gas and mining companies to disclose information about payments to governments of countries in which they invest around the world, including Burma.
If passed, the US Energy Security through Transparency Act will require all oil, gas and mining companies registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission to disclose data on payments made to foreign governments.
The NGO Earthrights International (ERI) said that “this will impact nearly every major oil and gas company around the world,” given that foreign companies must register with the SEC to do business in the US.
ERI’s Matthew Smith told a press conference in Bangkok today that this would also put pressure on Chinese and other Asian companies investing in Burma’s natural resources to comply.
Heightening pressure on Total, Chevron and Thailand’s PTTEP —three companies involved in the Yadana gas project and pipeline in Burma—an initiative launched on Tuesday in Bangkok called on the companies to reveal payments made to the Burmese military regime over the 18 years since Total signed a production sharing contract with Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE). The pending US legislation will not apply retrospectively, meaning that companies will only have to disclose payments going forward. (more…)
After renewing sanctions, EU seeks face-time with junta – The Irrawaddy
April 27th, 2010

http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=18327
European Union (EU) foreign ministers have renewed the bloc’s “Common Position” on Burma, extending existing sanctions until April 2011.
In a statement released on Monday, the European Council expressed “serious concerns” that the recently published election laws “do not provide for free and fair elections.” and restated its call “for the release of the political prisoners and detainees, including Aung San Suu Kyi.”
However, the EU said that it “stands ready to respond positively to genuine progress in Burma/Myanmar.” In keeping with the Western trend toward dialogue with the Burmese military junta, the EU says it hopes to maintain its dialogue with Naypidaw.
The EU had previously pledged to tighten or expand sanctions if the junta did not respond to requests for reform. However, despite what the European Burma Network listed as a number of factors in what it deemed to be “a continued decline in the human rights and political situation in Burma,” since the common position was last discussed in April 2009, the bloc has not amended its existing sanctions. (more…)
The Aid Debate: what’s the problem with helping? – The Casual Truth
April 26th, 2010

http://www.thecasualtruth.com/story/aid-debate-–-whats-problem-helping
On April 9th and 10th, seven of the world’s poorest countries met in Timor-Leste (East Timor) to discuss how wealthy aid donor countries are failing in their attempts to help.
Calling themselves the g7, in a takeoff of the better-known G7 comprising US, Japan and other wealthy countries, the group discussed how aid could be improved.

This ILO/Government public works project employed thousands of Timorese on a part-time basis and resulted in small-scale infrastructure upgrades, such as this road in Oecusse (Photo: Simon Roughneen)
Timor-Leste’s President Jose Ramos-Horta slammed donors for believing they can do no wrong.
A study last year showed that over US$8billion in aid had been spent in his country – Asia’s poorest – since 1999. He joked that if this had gone to ordinary Timorese, everyone would have a PhD.
However, he did acknowledge that corruption has increased in Timor-Leste, hinting that aid failures cut both ways. (more…)

























