Thaksin’s Brinkmanship – ISN
November 11th, 2009
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?lng=en&id=10945

Former Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra (cc) Russian PIO/Wikipedia
Former Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra landed in Cambodia yesterday, upping the ante in his quest to return home. But he may have damaged his campaign in a recent interview, with Bangkok accusing him of undermining the Thai monarchy, writes Simon Roughneen.
Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejajjiva will share the limelight with US President Barack Obama in Singapore later this week, with Thailand due to co-chair the first ever US-Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Singapore.
But with fugitive former PM Thaksin Shinawatra arriving in Cambodia on Tuesday, after being offered a job as an “economics advisor” by Cambodian premier Hun Sen, a royal-sized row is ramping up between the two countries, and between Thailand’s divided political classes.
Thaksin was deposed in a 2006 coup and is currently in exile, fleeing graft charges. His party won the 2007 elections, but was in turn kicked out of office when a number of MPs defected to support Abhisit’s Democrat Party in late 2008. That all came after a series of violent protests, culminating in the blockade of the country’s international airports by Thaksin’s yellowshirt opponents.
In recent weeks, the telecoms billionaire has been rallying his redshirts via videolink from his Dubai redoubt, seeking a royal pardon and pushing for new elections to be held as soon as possible. (more…)
Obama to Seek Suu Kyi’s Release – The Irrawaddy
November 10th, 2009

http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=17185&Submit=Submit
US President Barack Obama will seek Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s release when he meets leaders of the Association for Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) in Singapore this weekend. In keeping with a long-standing US policy, Obama will ask that the Nobel Peace Prize laureate, who led the National League for Democracy (NLD) to victory in Burma’s last general election in 1990, be freed “in the context of all political prisoners,” according to senior US official Jeffrey Bader.
“He will probably mention her by name,” said the US senior director for Asian affairs.
The Obama administration has initiated a policy of “engagement” with the ruling junta in Burma, acknowledging that the previous sanctions-only policy had failed to promote democratic reforms, but reminding that “engagement” by itself—the preferred policy of Burma’s fellow Asean member-states—had been equally unsuccessful.
However, speaking in Bangkok last week after a two-day visit to Burma, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of East Asia and Pacific Bureau Scott Marciel acknowledged that the US “still does not know why the junta wants to talk to us at this juncture.”
One the surface, there seems to be some synchronization between US and Burmese official public statements. (more…)
Hun Sen Upsets Thailand’s Apple Cart – Asia Sentinel/Jakarta Globe
November 9th, 2009


http://asiasentinel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2135&Itemid=170
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen’s offer to employ the fugitive Thai ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra as an “economics

Redshirts rally in Bangkok to mark 3 years since Thaksin was deposed (Photo: Simon Roughneen)
advisor” comes at a time when Thailand’s political house is in disarray, and seemingly is a daring – or perhaps foolhardy – gamble to provide Thaksin with a possible springboard to return to power in Bangkok.
Both countries have recalled their respective ambassadors, with some navel-gazing in Thailand wondering whether this was an over-reaction. There is talk of closing the land border between the two – although it is doubtful whether vested business interests operating across the frontier would be happy. Thailand is also reviewing a maritime agreement with Cambodia, threatening to undermine a deal to collaborate on oil and gas exploration.
Thaksin was overthrown in a 2006 royalist coup and has since remained out of Thailand, evading corruption charges, while his allies won back power democratically only to have the military and the courts oust them again. Despite the political setbacks, the absent Thaksin probably remains the second-most popular figure after the ailing King Bhumibol Adulyadej. He has been content to stay outside the country but has raised considerable hell from abroad through inciting his Red Shirt followers to continue to march, demonstrate and object to the government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and his Democrat Party.
Relations between the two countries have been strained for months. Hun Sen first offered Thaksin a home in Cambodia in October, embarrassing Abhisit just before he played host to his counterparts in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as well as the leaders of Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, at the resort town of Hua Hin, a couple hours south of Bangkok. (more…)
US Expects Slow Progress in Burma – The Irrawaddy
November 5th, 2009

http://irrawaddy.org/highlight.php?art_id=17159
The US wants Suu Kyi and the NLD to participate in the 2010 election but does not expect quick concessions from the junta.

Scott Marciel fields questions at Chulalongkorn University earlier today (Photo: Simon Roughneen)
Scott Marciel, the US deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asia, said in Bangkok on Thursday morning that the Burmese junta is unlikely to make any concessions anytime soon.
“We did not anticipate that one visit to Burma would resolve all the country’s problems,” he said.
Marciel, who is US ambassador for Asean affairs, concluded his remarks, saying, “It would be very hard to see an election without Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy [NLD] as credible.”
Marciel noted that the junta has recently dropped hints about a relaxation of Suu Kyi’s house arrest. Suu Kyi is currently under 18 months house arrest and is constitutionally barred from running for office due to her marriage to a British academic.
“Ultimately,” he said, “they can either free her, or keep her locked up. They should just free her, end of story.”
Marciel accompanied Kurt Campbell, the assistant secretary of state for East Asia, who led the US delegation on its two-day visit to Burma, where it met with Aung San Suu Kyi, a variety of opposition and ethnic group leaders and Burmese Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein.
Describing the visit as “an exploratory mission, to explain our policy review and to hear from Burmese,” Marciel said he does not know why the junta wants to engage with the US at this juncture. (more…)
America Dips Toe in Burmese Waters – ISN
November 5th, 2009
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?lng=en&id=109232
The US goes to Burma in advance of President Barack Obama’s ASEAN summit next week, but major progress is not expected any time soon, Simon Roughneen comments for ISN Security Watch.
A high-level US delegation visited Burma on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, meeting with Prime Minister General Thein Sein and with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Significantly, US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell did not meet Burma’s ruling strongman Sen Gen Than Shwe, who really calls the shots.
The meetings are part of the new US engagement policy with the junta, softening the isolationist stance taken by the Bush and Clinton administrations, but retaining the targeted sanctions on the ruling generals and business cronies first implemented in 1997.
However, his trip was described as “exploratory,” and dissidents outside Burma remain skeptical, with reason. In the days before the meeting the junta rounded up journalists in Rangoon and arrested some aid workers involved in Cyclone Nargis relief. (more…)
Model or muddle? – The Irrawaddy
November 5th, 2009

http://irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=17153
The human rights fallout rolls on in the aftermath of the recent 15th Asean Summit held in Hua Hin, Thailand.
Launching into a defense of the 10-state regional bloc, which includes Burma, Kishore Mahbubani, a former

CSO reps revisit the Asean summit (Photo: Simon Roughneen)
Singaporean diplomat who is now dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, told an audience in Bangkok this week, “Asean has moved forward on human rights over the past 10 years, while the US has gone backwards, and now lacks the moral authority it once had.”
Asean launched a new Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights at the summit. However, despite giving formal recognition to human rights, expectations are slim that the new body will do anything to protect people from abuses or punish perpetrators. The Commission’s terms of reference merely allow its mainly government-appointed members to promote human rights.
Regional civil society groups are still angered by the refusal of five Asean governments to meet with NGO representatives as scheduled on Oct. 23.The governments of Burma, Singapore, Laos, Cambodia and the Philippines vetoed the representatives chosen by the Asean People’s Forum (APF), with the Singapore government stating that governments were entitled to select a civil society representative for the meeting.
Speaking in Bangkok on Thursday on behalf of the APF, Chanida Bamford said that any deal to allow governments to handpick civil society delegates was not communicated to the APF. The fracas was widely reported in international media. (more…)
The People Nobody Wants – ISN
November 3rd, 2009
By Simon Roughneen for ISN Security Watch

Rohingya refugees in Nayapara camp (cc) Ruben Flamarique/Austcare/flickr
At its 15th summit held in Thailand two weeks ago, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations inaugurated the ASEAN Intergovernmental Human Rights Commission. It is the first time that the 10-state bloc has given institutional recognition to human rights.
What that means in practice is unclear. The body will merely promote human rights, and cannot sanction offenders or protect victims. With the Burmese junta nominating a representative to the 10-member commission, along with states such as Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos, which have less-than-stellar records in this area, it seems the new body is there to pay lip service rather than act decisively.
Action for sure is needed. Malaysia does not recognize refugees as a category; communist Vietnam continues to make life hard for religious groups; and the majority of Burmese struggle under a military dictatorship.
Standing out for the wrong reasons
But of all the ethnic groups in the region perhaps one stands out as suffering the most. The Rohingya are a Muslim minority in western Burma, living mainly in Rakhine State close to the border with Bangladesh. Muslims make up around 4 percent of the country’s total population, and a majority of Burmese Muslims describe themselves as ‘Rohingya.’
The Rohingya number about two million people. Approximately 800,000 remain in Burma and 200,000-400,000 in Bangladesh. An estimated half million live in the Middle East as migrant workers, with around 50,000 in Malaysia.
Some are thought to be descendants of migrants who came east from what is now India and Bangladesh during British colonial rule. Others believe the Rohingya descend from Arab traders who settled in Rakhine more than 1,000 years ago. It is impossible to say exactly who came from where and when, but the Burmese junta maintains that the Rohingya are not among the country’s 135 recognized ethnic groups.
Since 1982, Rohingya have been denied citizenship. (more…)
Adding Bounce to Asia’s Rebound – The Irrawaddy
October 31st, 2009

http://irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=17106&Submit=Submit
By SIMON ROUGHNEEN
BANGKOK — The role of exports and trade in Asian economic growth is coming under increasing scrutiny, as Asian countries show impressive rebound figures as they kick out of the global economic downturn ahead of countries in the West.
In recent months, Asian countries have used massive domestic “stimulus” packages to bolster economies, some of which, such as Japan, Thailand and Singapore, initially suffered badly in the months after Lehman Brothers folded in the US, and the world’s economy teetered on the brink of another Great Depression.

Heads of government at the recent 15th ASEAN Summit in Hua Hin, Thailand (Photo: Simon Roughneen)
Looking forward, Asian countries are seeking to decouple from the West. Despite his country’s almost un-Asian slow economic recovery rates, Japan’s Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama said that East Asia should “lead the world,” in advance of last weekend’s Asian summits held in Hua Hin, Thailand.
Closing the summits, Surin Pitsuwan, the general-secretary of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), said that Asia has “a heavy responsibility to pull the world economy along, and not disappoint the international community.”
On the face of it, this might seem to be true. This week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for Asia, saying the diverse region, spanning countries from New Zealand to India, would grow 2.75 percent in 2009 and 5.75 percent in 2010, below the 6.7 percent average of the past decade.
In comparison, the economies in the almost-defunct G-7 grouping, comprising the US, Canada, Japan, the UK, Germany, France and Italy, were predicted to shrink around 2.5 percent this year, before growing 1.25 percent in 2010. (more…)
Linking Ireland and Asia – Irish Examiner
October 27th, 2009
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- Simon Roughneen in Bangkok.
With over half the world’s population, Asia’s array of growing, dynamic economies will become an increasingly important place for Irish business going forward.
That was the key message delivered at the Asia Pacific Ireland Business Forum held in Bangkok recently.
Hosted by the Irish Thai Chamber of Commerce, the forum brought together over 400 Irish business leaders with operations across Asia. It follows up on the recent Global Ireland event held at Farmleigh. However, despite Asia’s potential and resistance to the current downturn, Liam O’Keefe – a Farmleigh attendee and leading Irish businessman in Asia – told the Bangkok gathering that that Asia was not originally on the Farmleigh agenda.
Jerome Kelly is President of the Chamber. He told the Irish Examiner that “we aim see how we can create opportunities for the Irish businesses looking to expand and invest in Asia.” (more…)
As ASEAN dithers, the US circles – Asia Times
October 27th, 2009

http://atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KJ28Ae01.html

Out of shape? ASEAN street lantern, downtown Hua Hin. (Photo: Simon Roughneen)
The rhetoric used at the latest summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations risks generating false expectations of the 10-member grouping developing into a nascent European Union. Certainly, progress was made on economic integration, but such issues as dealing with Myanmar remain unresolved, which sends a mixed message to the United States as it ponders its engagement in the region. - Simon Roughneen
HUA HIN, Thailand – While the bland regimen of inter-governmental summits does not usually spark juxtaposition with, say, Bob Dylan, there was a mocking appropriateness to the American singer’s The Times They Are A Changin’ ringing through the lobby at the Hua Hin Sheraton, one of the venues for 15th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit held over the past weekend.
Times might be changing across the 10-state regional bloc [1], but whether this means lofty goals, like implementing an ASEAN community by 2015, will be realized any time soon still seems unlikely. Outgoing ASEAN chair and Thai Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, spoke of “realizing a people-centered ASEAN community”, but a good post-summit press sound bite does not easily translate into a viable policy platform.
Indeed, such grandiose language risks generating false expectations of making ASEAN appear more like a nascent European Union (EU)-style body than is the case. Walter Lohman, head of the Asia section of the Heritage Foundation, a US-based conservative think-tank said, “At best, ASEAN economic integration will mean a broad lowering of trade and investment barriers.”
However, even the wheels of that project are spinning in the political sands. With Thailand and the Philippines failing to cut a deal on rice trade over the weekend, a bilateral roadblock has been raised that will impede the goal of an ASEAN free-trade area by January 1, 2010. (more…)























