Northern Ireland: Fighting A Time Warp – ISN
March 14th, 2009
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?lng=en&id=97650
The murder of two UK soldiers and a Catholic policeman Northern Ireland by two IRA splinter groups threatens to set the country back decades, Simon Roughneen writes for ISN Security Watch.
When Irish Taoiseach (or Prime Minister) Brian Cowen joins political leaders from Northern Ireland in Washington for next week’s St Patrick’s Day jamboree, President Barack Obama will hopefully show them more courtesy than he did UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown last week. (more…)
Northern Ireland goes back in time – Foreign Policy
March 12th, 2009

http://experts.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/03/12/ireland_goes_back_in_time

Continuity IRA Slogan
It’s looking dangerously similar to the 1980s in Northern Ireland, but a lot has changed since the worst days of “the troubles.”
Last weekend shattered the illusion that the gun had been permanently removed from Irish politics. Two Irish Republican Army (IRA) splinter groups carried out what seemed to be well-planned hits, first against two Afghanistan-bound British soldiers, and later, against a Catholic policeman responding to what turned out to be a terrorist trap. Tragedy that it was, the violence was just the first of two related messes now threatening peace and prosperity in Ireland. The financial crisis has also sent a wave of panic across the now-dead ‘Celtic Tiger’ — whose economy is now set to shrink by at least 6 percent in 2009 after a decade and a half of record growth. (more…)
Southeast Asia: B-words, P-words & C-words – ISN
March 3rd, 2009
Despite refreshingly tough talk amid the global downturn, Burma remains a black mark against an ASEAN bloc maneuvering between Washington and Beijing.
By Simon Roughneen in Singapore for ISN Security Watch
Long-slated as a flaccid talking shop, ASEAN began to muster up some multilateral mojo during 2008, when it played a key role in persuading the Burma dictatorship to let international aid agencies into the Irrawaddy delta region, destroyed by Cyclone Nargis.
That belated beseeching of the jungle junta has been spun – incongruously – as proof the hitherto gummy bear bloc has teeth. ASEAN member-states have previously shied from confrontation, with state sovereignty and face-saving prioritized over alleviating human suffering and tough talk over disagreements and challenges. (more…)
Sovereign Wealth Funds: Hedging Bets – ISN
February 26th, 2009
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?lng=en&id=96985
Having bet heavily on now ailing or defunct western financial institutions in 2007-2008, sovereign wealth funds are facing a period of retrenchment.
By Diana Ionescu and Simon Roughneen for ISN Security Watch
Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) are taking stock of the global downturn, which has not only eaten into their revenue streams, but left the funds with registered losses of 20-30 percent on average, measured against their 2007 asset portfolio.
SWFs recent rise to prominence has sparked some public debate, and quite a bit of pundit and policymaker navel-gazing, with Cassandras lifting their heads to shout their fears of Gulf and Asian covert takeovers of key western banks and even utilities. Now the debate has capsized – with western governments seeking revenues to underwrite pump-priming economic interventions at home.
However, the SWFs are in turn more wary of getting involved in financial systems reeling from often unquantifiable toxic debts.
To illustrate, China Investment Corp (CIC) paid US$3 billion for a 10 percent stake in Blackstone Group just ahead of its initial public offering in June 2007. Blackstone’s shares are now around one-seventh of the value when CIC originally paid up. (more…)
Sovereign Wealth Funds: White Knights to Ride Again? – World Politics Review
February 24th, 2009
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http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=3345
by Simon Roughneen and Diana Ionescu

IFLR.com
As Western financial sectors reeled during 2007 and 2008, Asian and Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) offered some succor, administering exotic medicine to banks poisoned by subprime toxins.
These White Knights cast a dark shadow, however, as questions — and fears — were raised about the political influence that, for instance, a Chinese government presence on the board of Barclays Bank might represent.
The focus has shifted recently. Plummeting oil prices and declining demand for imports by contracting U.S, European and Japanese markets undercut the vast revenue base the SWFs were drawing upon. Now SWFs are writing off untold billions in debt and meeting liquidity needs in domestic markets, while seeking recapitalization from revenue-hungry governments. They might no longer be able or willing to invest in Western financial institutions.
As Tang Tjun, partner and managing director at Boston Consulting Group and head of its Financial Services Practice (Greater China), told World Politics Review, (more…)
Celtic Tiger Dazed by the Ritalin King – World Politics Review
February 13th, 2009
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http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/article.aspx?id=3289

Irish Poster - Campaign against the EU Constitution
The tale could begin, “During the short reign of the Ritalin King cameth the downturn. . . .”
During his six-month EU presidency, Nicolas Sarkozy laced into any number of challenges with a typically hyperactive gusto and self-importance. The spirit of the Sun King may have been whispering in Sarko’s ear, as he put his own stamp on Louis XIV’s famous motto…”L’Europe, c’est moi.”
When time came to pass the EU crown to Prague, the Frenchman threatened to boycott the handover, after unsuccessfully pushing for self-serving alternatives to existing EU mechanisms. The Coulisses de Bruxelles blog quoted an aide to Sarkozy saying, “France is leaving a roadmap on the financial markets, the economic relaunch, immigration, defense, energy, climate change. If [Czech Prime Minister and current EU President] Mirek Topolanek does nothing, Nicolas Sarkozy, who has brought France back to the center of the game, will take the initiative.”
In a globalized world, foreign policy and macroeconomic challenges come thick and fast, and Sarkozy’s mile-a-minute style won plaudits, even if the mix of unilateral gambits alongside rhetorical “EU-nity” was contradictory. Remember last September, when Angela Merkel stood beside Sarkozy as he talked up France’s response to the global downturn, implying that Germany and the rest of Europe lagged behind? (more…)
Allah’s a Bad Word… – NC Register
February 9th, 2009

http://www.ncregister.com/site/article/17266/
Allah’s a Bad Word … for a Catholic Newspaper in Malaysia.
February 15-21, 2009 Issue
It seems that anyone in Malaysia can refer to God as Allah — as long as you are Muslim.
The Herald, a Church-run weekly newspaper in the capital of Kuala Lumpur, was warned by the government at the start of 2009 that it must stop using Allah when referring to God in its Malay-language edition or risk closure.
However, in its Jan. 24 edition, the Catholic newspaper did just that. The newspaper filed a motion with the country’s High Court and feels no compunction to follow the government’s directive prior to a court ruling. (more…)
Southeast Asia: U-Turns, downturns & shadow dances -ISN
January 28th, 2009
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?lng=en&id=95866
Questions about freedom of speech and democracy loom over an economically vulnerable region.

Traditional shadow puppets, or wayang kulits, perform in a shadow theater in Java. Image by © Charles & Josette Lenars/CORBIS
By Simon Roughneen in Sydney for ISN Security Watch
As Thailand’s international airports were besieged by protesters in December, the country’s recent lurch into civil discord was spun as a disastrous regression by a hitherto vibrant and competitive democracy.
Apropos, in December, former US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice described the coup as a “U-turn” for Southeast Asia.
Maybe more of a full circle than a U-turn, however. Without even mentioning the ongoing tragedy that is Burma/Myanmar, Southeast Asia’s democratic progress has been piecemeal and fluctuating. During King Bhumibol’s long reign, Thailand has undergone 18 coups. As such, what has taken place in recent months is nothing new.
While new Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva took power formally after enough MPs from the ousted government switched sides, it appears that the misnamed People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protesters were facilitated in bringing the country to a standstill by Thailand’s military. PAD favors a partially nominated parliament in order to prevent a repeat of the self-styled “pro-poor” administration under Thaksin Shinawatra, whose admittedly corrupt government brought unprecedented gains to marginalized Thais.
Freedom of speech is under duress from state forces, even in formal democracies. Thailand retains possibly the world’s harshest lese-majeste laws, with an Australian novelist and left-wing academic jailed in recent days for allegedly criticising the monarchy’s role in recent political upheavals. (more…)
Obama wrestles the ox – ISN
January 19th, 2009
http://www.isn.ethz.ch/isn/Current-Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?lng=en&id=95464
Amid economic flux, Obama faces challenges and opportunities across Asia, with the possibility of revolutionary change in China, but state failure in Pakistan.
By Simon Roughneen in Singapore for ISN Security Watch
Just days after Barack Obama assumes office in the US, 26 January will mark the Year of the Ox in Asia. As the global downturn pushes dozens of countries into recession, Asia, like much of the world, faces a deeply uncertain 2009.
When the subprime crisis morphed into full-scale Wall Street meltdown and pan-European banking panic during in the fall of 2008, longer-term predictions about a rebalancing of global geopolitics – with the rise in relative importance of India and China in particular, and Asia in general – were taken as imminent by some.
Longer-term, this rebalancing seems inevitable. However, Obama will have to contend with a rising Asia, managing relationships with an array of economies, as well as contribute to defusing security threats on the Indian subcontinent, in Afghanistan, and with North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. (more…)
Ireland, Singapore: Tigers Down – The Washington Times
January 18th, 2009

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jan/18/boisterous-and-strong-economies-now-imperiled/
Boisterous and strong economies now imperiled

High-rise banking - financial district Singapore (Getty Images)
Two of the world’s most open and successful economies face tough times as the global downturn marks the end of one era and opens a new period of peril and possibility for both. Singapore and Ireland have staked their fortunes on being small, export-oriented, investor-friendly dynamos. Singapore was one of the original Asian Tiger economies, and the label passed to the Atlantic nation in the 1990s, as 15 years of 5 percent average growth earned Ireland its “Celtic Tiger” reputation.
But as Kishore Mahbubani, a former Singapore diplomat and author of “The New Asian Hemisphere – The Irresistible Shift of Power to the East,” told The Washington Times, “being globalized has its downside – when the world economy stutters, the more open economies feel the pain first.”
Both Singapore and Ireland are officially in recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
Last week, U.S. computer giant Dell Inc. culled 2,000 jobs at its plant in Limerick, while Singapore’s Trade Ministry stated Jan. 2 that it expected the economy to contract 2 percent in 2009, the worst predicted performance of any Asian economy for the coming year. (more…)

























