Why social media may not sway Asia elections – Nikkei Asian Review

SINGAPORE — Candidates running in a slew of elections across Asia this year are taking to Twitter and other social media platforms to share slogans, pitch policies, rankle rivals and rouse crowds ahead of campaign rallies. For the last decade or so, elections have typically been depicted as social media-driven contests where the hashtag outranks the hustings when it comes to canvassing votes, particularly from smartphone-dependent millennials. While social media environments differ depending on the country, the importance of Twitter and Facebook might be overstated. Although some Asian candidates boast a huge social media presence, many of their followers appear to be fake or dormant, and the proportion of those who engage with posts is relatively low. Thailand, Indonesia, India are all holding general or presidential elections in the first half of this year, Australia is likely to vote in May, around the time the Philippines holds midterm polls. The three Southeast Asian countries are among the world’s five most internet-addicted, according to We Are Social’s 2019 global survey. Using the online Twitter analysis tool Sparktoro, which works by taking a representative sample of followers — along the lines of an opinion survey — it appears Indonesian President Joko Widodo has over 5.1 million fake followers. That equates to more than 47% of his total follower base.

Australia seeks new ASEAN ties as US-China rivalry grows – Nikkei Asian Review

JAKARTA — While there is no clear threat from the U.S. to loosen its long-standing ties with Australia, some observers say the country may one day face a choice between its main security ally and its biggest trade partner. Graham Allison, author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, said that China’s rise is forcing Asian countries with close ties to the U.S. to reconsider. “Largesse, economic imperialism — call it what you will: The fact is that China’s economic network is spreading across the globe, altering the international balance of power in a way that causes even longtime U.S. allies in Asia to tilt from the U.S. toward China,” Allison said.

Ahead of historic meeting with Southeast Asian leaders, Australia cuts boundary deal with East Timor – RTÉ World Report

JAKARTA — East Timor is a tiny country, with a land area around the same as the North of Ireland and a population of 1.3 million people. Its existing oil and gas reserves will be depleted in less than a decade, and with little sign of growth in other parts of the economy, it badly needs this deal with Australia How much money it ends up getting will depend on fluctuating oil and gas prices and on what subsequent deal is worked out to extract and process the underwater oil and gas. The companies with rights to drill in the field have floated, pun intended, the idea of a floating platform in the Timor Sea to process the gas there. But Australia wants to pipe to Darwin and use existing facilities, which would mean an 80% revenue cut for East Timor. The Timorese want pipe to East Timor and process there, giving a Dili 70% revenue cut but potentially allowing the Timorese to develop spin-off industries that could modernise its economy.

Australia and East Timor sign historic maritime boundary deal, despite tensions over gas field – The Daily Telegraph

Xanana Gusmao speaks to supporters after winning 2012 election in East Timor (Photo: Simon Roughneen)

JAKARTA — Australia and East Timor on Wednesday signed what Canberra’s foreign minister Julie Bishop called “a milestone” agreement on a maritime boundary between the two countries. The treaty ends a long a bitter dispute between the neighbouring countries and paves the way for exploitation of billions of dollars in gas and oil under the Timor Sea – with at least 70 percent of the revenue to go to impoverished East Timor. The agreement was also historic because it marked the first successful conclusion of “conciliation” negotiations to settle maritime differences under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.  How much money the country, a half-island nation of 1.3 million people who are among the poorest in the world, ends up getting depends partly on what deal is worked out to drill and pipe the underwater gas.

Search for missing Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 ends after nearly 3 years – Los Angeles Times

JAKARTA — Nearly three years after Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 disappeared over the Indian Ocean, Australia, China and Malaysia on Tuesday called off the underwater search, saying “no new information has been discovered” to solve what has become one of aviation’s greatest mysteries. A review of the plane’s likely trajectory as well as new information about ocean currents led experts to conclude that the aircraft might have crashed into the Indian Ocean north of the search zone, and that crews should have been hunting in a 15,000-square-mile zone to the north. The Australian government rejected that recommendation, saying the findings were not precise enough to warrant moving the search. Australia, China and Malaysia, which have funded the search, said last year that the operation would be called off once all of the 46,000-mile zone had been investigated. “It is obvious that the search should be to the north,” Ghislain Wattrelos, a 52-year-old Frenchman whose wife and two children were aboard the aircraft, said in an interview.

Opposition concedes defeat in Australian poll – Nikkei Asian Review

MELBOURNE/SYDNEY — Malcolm Turnbull is set to continue as Australia’s prime minister after opposition leader Bill Shorten on Sunday conceded defeat in the national election — eight days after voters went to the polls. Shorten’s announcement came as Turnbull’s conservative Liberal-National party coalition inched closer to the minimum seats required — 76 out of 150 — to govern in its own right. However, the coalition may still need the support of independents and minor party members if votes yet to be counted contribute to it falling short of that majority. “I respect that Mr Turnbull has won government — be it a minority government or a majority of one or two seats,” Shorten said on Sunday. That was still the question as Turnbull declared victory about an hour later. With votes still to be counted, it remained unclear whether the coalition would secure a majority. With around 80% of the votes counted on Sunday, the Australian Electoral Commission had the coalition ahead in 76 seats. Turnbull had used the days prior to shore up support from crossbenchers. Three out of the five elected had agreed to back the coalition when it came to supply and confidence matters, a move that effectively ended talk of Shorten leading a minority government or Australians being forced back to the polls. “It looks like he [Turnbull] will cross the 76 seat threshold and, even if not, he has support from a couple of independents,” said John Warhurst, emeritus professor of politics at Australian National University.

Australia waits on election outcome – Nikkei Asian Review

SYDNEY and MELBOURNE — Australians may not know for a few days the results of their July 2 national election, following one of the tightest polls in the country’s history. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull expressed confidence early on Sunday morning — hours after voting ended — that he would be returned as leader after a closely fought campaign that saw a swing away from his Liberal Party-led coalition toward the opposition Labor Party. But analysts warned of the prospect of a hung parliament, in which no single party or alliance would hold an absolute majority. It was unclear by the time vote-counting was halted early on Sunday morning whether the ruling Liberal-National coalition could win the minimum 76 lower house seats it requires to form a ruling majority. Even so, Turnbull told a gathering of his party faithful in Sydney that he had “every confidence that we will be able to form a coalition majority government,” and said that despite gains for the opposition Labor Party, the opposition “has no capacity in the parliament” to lead the next administration. Turnbull’s speech came soon after rival Bill Shorten, the Labor leader, told his party in Melbourne that final results may not be known “for some days to come.” Even if Labor could not regain control of government, which it last held in 2013 before being trounced by the Liberal-National party coalition “there is one thing for sure: the Labor Party is back,” he added.

Australia on edge after close election – Nikkei Asian Review

MELBOURNE and SYDNEY — Australians were closely watching for results of their national election on Saturday night. Counting in the eastern states suggested a swing toward the opposition Labor Party after polls closed at 6 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. But as voting continued in the country’s west, results remained unclear, raising the prospect of a hung parliament in which no party would have an absolute majority. By 11:45 p.m. Sydney time, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull had not arrived at a governing party post-election event held at a posh Sydney hotel. Former Liberal Party Prime Minister John Howard spoke to media at the event, saying he was disappointed at seat losses in the election, but said “it is for the prime minister to speak on behalf of the coalition” regarding the overall election outcome. For much of the protracted, 55-day election campaign, Turnbull’s Liberal-National party coalition — which stormed to power at the 2013 election — was tipped to enjoy a narrow victory. But a late surge of support for Labor in opinion polls in the final days gave opposition leader Bill Shorten, a former trade union boss, reason to be optimistic.

Tight Australia poll may give minnows balance of power – Nikkei Asian Review

SYDNEY – On the eve of voting Australia’s July 2 national elections looks set to produce a hung parliament, raising the prospect of a raft of smaller parties and independents winning seats, and precipitating lengthy horse-trading before a government can be formed. By June 30, almost 2.5 million people had taken part in the early voting system set up for people unable to vote on July 2. One of those early voters, David Le, a 34-year-old banker, said that “in a time when the country is stable but the main political parties are not, people are going to look for alternatives.” “In common with much of the rest of the western world, there is a general skepticism about the ethics and morality of politics, and in Australia in particular the frequent deposing of prime ministers,” said John Warhurst. “What we are seeing in the opinion polls is increased votes for the minor parties, but often that’s used to cast a protest,” Albanese, told the Nikkei Asian Review. But Albanese, the shadow minister for infrastructure, transport, cities and tourism, conceded that possible gains for smaller parties remained “one of the great unknowns” of the July 2 election. He would not be drawn on whether a strong showing for the Greens and other independents could help Labor form a coalition. “We’re aiming to govern in our own right, 76 seats, that’s the aim.” Asked if he thought smaller parties would fare as well as opinion polls suggest, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said: “Tomorrow the Australian people will tell us emphatically and decisively.”

Brexit could affect result of Australian election – Nikkei Asian Review

SYDNEY — Most of Australia’s politicians believe that Britain’s June 23 vote to leave the European Union will have little direct impact on Australia’s resource-rich economy, but that does not mean Brexit is being ignored, less than a week before what looks set to be closely-fought national elections. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull made a clear effort to play down any potential fallout from the Brexit controversy on Australia’s election and the country’s ties with the U.K. Speaking immediately after the U.K. referendum result, he said the U.K.’s departure from the EU would “have little direct economic impact in the short term as 3% of our trade is with the U.K. and our financial system is not reliant upon the pound sterling. What we see, though, is some short-term volatility on our share market and in the currency market.” Speaking in Sydney on June 27, shadow treasurer Chris Bowen of the opposition Australian Labor Party said that although Brexit could see sharp swings in global financial markets, the consequences would be for the short term and relatively mild. “I would regard the impact of Britain leaving the EU as much less intensive [than] the events of 2008,” Bowen said, referring to the global financial crisis.