BANGKOK – “I am not sure who to vote for”, said Nawa Lee, a bus station clerk in Bang Na district of Bangkok. Between 20% and 30% of the voters remain undecided, according to some opinion polls, and with forty parties contesting 500 seats, there are plenty of options for voters, based on raw numbers at least. However, in a country where democracy has arguably been on the wane since the army deposed an elected Government in September 2006, the main race is between the biggest party in the governing coalition, the Democrats, and Peua Thai, backed by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and supported by the redshirt movement that set up camp in central Bangkok for two months just over a year ago, in protests marked by on-off violence that left 91 people dead.
Democrat leader and outgoing Prime Minister Abhisit Vejajjiva said on Thursday that he is confident that his party can win enough seats to form a government, though opinion polls put his party well behind Puea Thai, which is hoping to win enough seats to govern alone. With voting closing at the unusually-early hour of 3pm on Sunday, results should be known by around 10pm. If neither Puea Thai nor the Democrats win a sufficient majority to govern alone, as seems the most likely outcome, parties will get down to negotiating coalition deals, though doubtless the horse-trading and money-talking has started already.
The other parties running will not win anywhere near as many seats as either Peua Thai or the Democrats, but they could have a say on who takes office, depending on the results. On the streets of Bangkok, some of the smaller parties throwing up some eye-catching images and thought-provoking slogans to try draw attention away from the “Big Two”. With voting compulsory, the now-rump yellowshirts, whose 2006 and 2008 protests helped push Thaksin and his allies from office, are calling Thais to ‘ Vote No’, that is, to spoil their vote. Depicting politicians as animals on their billboards, the group is campaigning to have Thailand governed by an appointed administration for the next five years, their own solution to the country’s last five years of on-off protest and violence.
The perhaps-misnamed People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), as the yellowshirts call themselves, are not the only competitor with dubious democratic
credentials. Sonthi Boonyaratakalin, the army general who led the 2006 coup, is pitching to ethnic Malays Muslims in the Deep South of Thailand, traditionally a pro-Democrat region, where his Matabhum or Motherland party might capitalise on local anger at both of Big Two for their failure to bring peace to an insurgency-wracked region.
Chuwit Kamolvisit, a former brothel owner and born-again Christian, is running on an anti-graft ticket, telling all about the hefty kickbacks he once paid to police to keep his massage empire running. Though his Rak Prathet Thai (Love Thailand) Party has little chance of winning any more than a handful of seats, he is pledging to be a backbench voice against corruption if elected. With his sweat-laced glare appearing on posters all over the capital, the gangster-chic lovable-rogue spin is catching-on, with his party running 3rd or 4th in some Bangkok-area opinion polls. Nawa Lee says that she originally planned to vote for Peua Thai, but is now “thinking maybe for Khun Chuwit.”
The Bhumjaithai (BJT/Pride of Thailand) is perhaps the most-likely of the smaller parties have a say in who governs next. Led by Newin Chidchob, a former Thaksin ally who switched sides in late 2008, giving Abhisit and the Democrats the parliamentary headcount needed to form a Government, he competes for votes around Buriram in the Peau Thai/redshirt heartland. Another potential coalition partner for either of the Big Two is the Thai National Development Party, popular in the central region just north of Bangkok, and thought more likely to lean towards Peua Thai, which has dismissed the idea of a revived partnership with BJT.
The Democrats and Peua Thai have run with similar-sounding big talk about even bigger spending on social and education measures, as well as grandiose infrastructure projects. It is all reminiscent of the outlays utilised by Thaksin Shinawatra to win elections in the 2001 and 2005, and perhaps an unwitting hat-tip to the quasi-revolutionary impact the exiled former telecommunication entrepreneur-turned-vote-machine had on Thai politics, winning big in the populous and less-affluent north and north-east
However Thaksin’s sometimes heavy-handed governing style and prickly attitude towards criticism was not to everyone’s liking. And while Thailand’s long-standing socio-economic inequalities needed addressing, Thaksin’s economic legacy is not seen as positive by everyone. Prao Pan, an economics student from Nakhon Sawan, said that Thaksinomics “are not sustainable”, adding that “you cannot run a country the same as you manage a business”.
Despite being absent from Thailand for over three years, Thaksin looms large over the election. His youngest sister Yingluck is the photogenic Peau Thai campaign figurehead, and despite being a political novice, has seemingly impressed Thai voters with her cautious and non-confrontational rhetoric. She would become Thailand’s first woman PM if elected. However the Democrats are trying to pigeon-hole Yingluck as a mere mouthpiece for her brother., and given that one of the Peua Thai campaign slogans says’ Thaksin thinks, Puea Thai does’, they might have a point.
The Democrats have reminded voters that Thaksin is on the run after fleeing a two year prison sentence for abuse of power while in office, hoping that swing voters might be swayed their way by evoking memories of last year’s violence and arson in Bangkok, which they have tried to pin on Thaksin, and by the prospect of an amnesty for Thaksin should Peua Thai win.
However, in a controversial rally held at the same high-rise shopping mall intersection where the Thai Army violently-dispersed the redshirt protest rally on May 19 last year, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban sought to distance the Government and the army from the killings during the 2010 redshirt protests. In contrast, eyewitness accounts and human rights groups said that the army fired on civilian protestors, contravening Thai and international law.
On Thursday, army chief Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha issued his latest denial that the military would launch a coup in the event of post-election violence or a Peua Thai win. However, in a country that has seen 18 coups or coup attempts since absolute monarchy was ditched in favour of a constitutional format in 1932, it might seem that the General doth protest too much. He appeared twice on Thai TV recently, asking voters to vote for “good people” and vowing to protect the monarchy, perhaps undermining his claim that the military does not intervene in politics. In Thailand’s smoke-and-mirrors political discourse, euphemism and allusion take precedence over straight talk, and the General’s exhortation was code for ‘anyone but Peua Thai’.
And if the army looms in the background, Thailand’s ‘institution’ – the monarchy in other words – looms large over the army and politics in general, and there have been a number of high-profile lèse majesté arrests in recent years, with some cases bordering on the absurd. However some Thais, not only the army chief, remain supportive of the ‘institution’. “The reds say bad against the King”, said 28 year old Withun, who refused to give his full name. “That is why I will vote for Abhisit.” Concerns among some Thai lawmakers and army officers that Thaksin’s popularity in some regions and sectors of Thai society posed a threat to the monarchy was likely a factor behind the 2006 coup, and could be resurrected if Peua Thai wins and Thaksin attempts to come home.
Given Thailand’s recent history, predictions of post-election violence, protests and coups are unsurprising, not least given that the octogenarian King Bhumibol Adulyadej, has been in hospital since September 2009, prompting speculation that a succession crisis looms. However talk of a behind-the-scenes face-saving deal negotiated between Thaksin, the monarchy and the Democrats has come out in recent days, summed-up in a June 29 article by Shawn Crispin in Asia Times Online. If the deal is real and all parties honour it, it could at least bring about a hiatus to Thailand’s cycle of coups and protests.Show