Despite optimism about global economy, IMF warns of pandemic poverty rise – dpa international

Would-be shoppers in Castlebar in Ireland during the brief period between the country's 2nd and 3rd lockdowns. Retailers have suffered due to countries veering in and out of lockdown since the start of the pandemic (Simon Roughneen)

DUBLIN — The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday the world economy could recover faster than expected this year, revising its January projection up by 0.5 percentage points to 6 per cent.The United States and China, the world’s two biggest economies, are likely to grow by 6.4 per cent and 8.4 per cent in 2021, driving the global rebound if pandemic-related economic curbs can be rolled back, the IMF said in a report published on Tuesday. But while “a way out of this health and economic crisis is increasingly visible,” according to the IMF’s Gita Gopinath, “divergent recovery paths” will likely result in increased poverty in so-called emerging markets and low-income countries, which could struggle to recover.

Unemployment to linger in Ireland after economy recovers – dpa international

Empty main street in Castlebar, a west of Ireland town, in early March 2021 (Simon Roughneen)

DUBLIN — Ireland’s economy could recover “quite strongly” from pandemic-related curbs in 2021, but employment is unlikely to bounce back for at least two years, according to the state-funded Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). In a report published on Thursday, the ESRI cut its earlier 2021 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast from 5.2 per cent to 4.4 per cent, citing the likely impact of Ireland’s ongoing third lockdown, which was imposed in late December. The ESRI said the revised projection assumes “a gradual easing of restrictions” from next month and that Covid-19 jabs “will facilitate the broad relaxation of public health restrictions in the second half of 2021.” Ireland’s economy grew by 3.4 per cent in 2020 on the back of record exports in multinational-heavy sectors that have thrived during the pandemic.

Irish imports from Britain down over 900 million euros in January – dpa international

Inside an Irish branch of the British Tesco supermarket chain (Simon Roughneen)

DUBLIN — Ireland’s imports from Britain fell by 65 per cent in January after the British departure from the European Union led to more complicated trade with its nearest neighbour. Ireland’s Central Statistics Office (CSO) said on Thursday that imports from Britain fell 906 million euros (1.08 billion dollars) year-on-year to less than half a billion euros. Ireland usually sources around one-fifth of its goods imports from Britain, though the EU and the US account for most of the country’s overall trade. Irish exports to Britain saw a much smaller decline compared to imports of 14 per cent, the CSO said, to make up 7 per cent of the January total. Irish exports to Britain fell by almost 10 per cent in 2020.

Lockdowns leave 10-trillion-dollar hole in global economy – dpa international

Pandemic restrictions have left usually-busy streets empty, such as in this west of Ireland town as seen in March 2021, nearly 3 months into Ireland’s 3rd stay-home lockdown (Simon Roughneen)

DUBLIN — A stronger-than-expected rebound this year will still leave the world down an estimated 10 trillion dollars due to the coronavirus pandemic and lockdowns, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Although the global economy could expand by 4.7 per cent in 2021, it will nonetheless wind up “short of 10 trillion dollars” – about twice Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) – compared to if the pandemic never happened, UNCTAD said on Thursday. Last year, the global economy was hit by what UNCTAD described as “its sharpest annual drop in output since statistics on aggregate economic activity were introduced in the early 1940s.” While wealthy economies have proposed huge damage-limitation fiscal spending, such as the United States’ 1.9-trillion-dollar “stimulus package,” and while China returned to growth in late 2020, people in smaller and poorer countries are struggling, UNCTAD warned.

Pandemic restrictions mean two-thirds of borders are fully or partly closed – dpa international

DUBLIN — Pandemic restrictions have completely or partly closed two-thirds of destinations worldwide to international tourism, according to the World Tourism Organization (UNTWO), a United Nations agency. One year on from the World Health Organization labelling the novel coronavirus outbreak a pandemic, 69 out of 217 destinations remain “completely closed,” the UNTWO said on Monday in its latest Travel Restrictions Report. Around the same number of destinations are “partially closed,” the UNWTO calculated. Thirty-eight of the 69 completely-closed destinations have been that way for at least 40 weeks, the UNWTO said, noting “regional differences” in how curbs are applied.

Ireland’s GDP up 3.4 per cent in 2020 but other measures show decline – dpa international

Sign outside business park in Castlebar, Ireland. IDA Ireland is the country's main foreign investment agency (Simon Roughneen)

DUBLIN — Ireland’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by an estimated 3.4 per cent last year, according to the Central Statistics Office (CSO), an expansion driven by foreign business and exports but coming as domestic output shrank. “Multinational sector growth was 18.2 per cent in 2020 while non-MNE [multinational enterprise]-dominated sectors declined by 9.5 per cent,” the CSO said on Friday. Ireland reported a record 160.8 billion euros (198 billion dollars) in goods exports last year, but businesses geared towards the small domestic market “experienced significantly lower levels of economic activity,” according to the CSO’s Jennifer Banim, with hotels, restaurants and construction hit hard as personal spending fell by 9 per cent. US multinationals in sectors that have enjoyed surging global demand during the pandemic, including pharmaceuticals and big tech, have European headquarters in Ireland – drawn by low taxes and EU membership. Amazon and Microsoft were among the American corporate giants to announce expansions in Ireland last year. According to Finance Minister Pascal Donohoe, “the pharma and ICT sectors recorded extraordinary export growth, driven by blockbuster immunological drugs, Covid related products, and the shift to home-working.”

Most Asian economies do not innovate in line with growth levels – dpa international

DUBLIN — Most East Asian countries “innovate less than would be expected given their per capita income levels” and could therefore struggle to sustain recent economic growth, according to the World Bank. Countries in the region are dogged by “insufficient staff skills and limited financing options,” the bank said in a report published late Tuesday, with firms often seeming wary of investing in innovation because “policies and institutions are often not aligned with firms’ capabilities and needs.” Lower-than-expected innovation could lead to questions about “whether the region’s past model of development can continue to deliver rapid growth and poverty reduction,” the bank said.

Ireland not even halfway through third lockdown, according to taoiseach – dpa international

The usually busy main street in Knock, a popular Catholic pilgrimage town in Ireland. As seen at evening time during Ireland's third coronavirus lockdown.

DUBLIN — Almost two months into Ireland’s third coronavirus lockdown, Prime Minister Micheál Martin said the country “is looking at a continuation of severe restrictions” until the end of April, despite case numbers plummeting since a January peak. Martin made the warning in a late-night Thursday interview with the Irish Mirror newspaper, in which he said extending the lockdown would be “worth it.” Mary Lou McDonald, leader of Sinn Féin, Ireland’s main opposition party, slammed Martin’s comments as “flippant.” Peadar Tóibīn, head the small opposition party Aontú, said the government’s proposed extension amounted to “policy failure.”

Ireland reports record-breaking exports even as Brexit hits trade with Britain – dpa international

Socially-distant queue to enter a shop in Sligo in the northwest of Ireland (Simon Roughneen)

DUBLIN — Ireland’s goods exports were worth an unprecedented 160.8 billion euros (196 billion US dollars) last year, a new record underpinned by surging sales of medical and pharmaceutical products during the novel coronavirus pandemic. Estimates published by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) showed “medical and pharmaceutical products making up 39 per cent of 2020 goods exports, a value increase of 25 per cent on 2019.” Exports to the 26 other member states of the European Union accounted for 40 per cent the 2020 total, the CSO said, an increase of 13 per cent on 2019. Belgium and Germany were Ireland’s two biggest markets in the EU. Exports to Britain, Ireland’s nearest neighbour, fell by 9 per cent during 2020 and made up 8 per cent of the year’s overall amount. After Britain left the EU in early 2020, an increasing proportion of Ireland’s exports to the continent ended up being shipped directly rather than transiting Britain, with ferry companies in some cases doubling cargo sailings from Ireland to France.

Global trade plummeted in 2020 before East Asia drove late-year revival – dpa international

Customers lining up at a mobile phone shop inside a Kuala Lumpur mall on May 4 2020 (Simon Roughneen)

DUBLIN — Global trade shrank by 9 per cent in 2020 despite a late-year recovery in East Asia, according to estimates published on Wednesday by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The revival as “uneven,” with 8-per-cent fourth quarter growth in global merchandise or goods trade but stagnation in services, UNCTAD said.. While international commerce was “greatly affected” by “economic and social disruptions brought about by Covid-19,” East Asia registered “gains in global market share” after being able to “better weather the challenges of the pandemic,” according to the UN trade body.