IMF lowers Asia economic growth outlook after months of lockdowns – dpa international

A busy train station in Jakarta prior to all the pandemic lockdown chaos (Simon Roughneen)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut its 2021 economic growth forecast for Asia to 6.5 per cent, citing “new peaks of the pandemic cycle.” Many countries in the region have reported record coronavirus-related deaths and case numbers in the months since the IMF’s April forecast of around 7.5-per-cent growth for this year. “The pandemic’s resurgence has triggered lockdowns that are hampering the recovery,” the IMF said, in its latest Asia-focused economic outlook. Despite the impact of the virus and the harsh restrictions applied in countries such as Australia and Malaysia, Asia is nonetheless is likely to remain the world’s fastest-growing region, the IMF said, while warning that the pandemic is widening a “divide” between the region’s advanced economies and their “emerging” or “developing” counterparts.

IMF cuts US and global GDP growth forecasts, citing “uncertainty” – dpa international

All quiet in a Kuala Lumpur shopping mall during one of Malaysia's pandemic lockdowns, which saw factories cut output due to restrictions on staff numbers, leading to supply shortages elsewhere in the world (Simon Roughneen)

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut its global economic growth forecast for 2021 to 5.9 per cent, citing “uncertainty about how quickly the [coronavirus] pandemic can be overcome.” In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF pared 0.1 percentage points off its July projection, in part due to “advanced economies” being hit by supply-chain disruptions that were exacerbated by recent pandemic outbreaks and lockdowns in Asia’s manufacturing hubs. Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s director of research, said “global recovery continues but momentum has weakened.” The Fund said it expects the world’s biggest economy, the US, to grow by 6 per cent this year, one percentage point down on what it projected in July, with China, the second-biggest, in line for 8-per-cent expansion.

OECD says most big economies yet to shake off virus effects despite recent growth – dpa international

In Dublin, the capital of Ireland, where the government has been slow to lift coronavirus restrictions compared to neighbours (Simon Roughneen)

DUBLIN — Most of the world’s big economies are running below pre-pandemic levels despite “accelerating” growth in the second quarter of this year, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Overall gross domestic product (GDP) across the OECD remains 0.7 per cent below that reported at the end of 2019, shortly before the coronavirus pandemic was declared, the Paris-based OECD said on Monday. That’s despite GDP expanding 1.6 per cent across the Group of 7 (G7) economies in the second quarter, up from 0.4 per cent in the first three months of the year. There were “strong variations” among what the OECD calls the “Major Seven” economies, which does not include China, which does not inclide the world’s second biggest GDP after the the US. Britain grew growing the fastest of the 7, at almost 5 per cent from April to June, after a near 2-per-cent contraction during the previous three months, when, like in many Western countries, economically-debilitating pandemic restrictions were in place.

OECD sees uncertainties and moderating growth ahead for world’s big economies – dpa international

Outdoor dining resumed in Ireland far later than most other OECD member-states (Simon Roughneen)

DUBLIN — The pace of growth in “major economies” is likely to moderate, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said on Tuesday, warning of “persisting uncertainties” despite the lifting of pandemic restrictions in many countries. The Paris-based OECD said China could expect “steady growth” in industry, while Britain, much of the European Union, Japan and the US face a general “moderating pace of growth at above-trend level.” For India, which recently was hit with a huge coronavirus surge, “stable” growth prospects have been forecast, but France and Brazil respectively face “below trend” and “slowing” growth. The forecasts came after lower-than-expected second-quarter gross domestic product growth (GDP) numbers for the US and China, by far the world’s two biggest economies.

OECD says world economy to grow at an ‘uneven’ 6 per cent this year – dpa international

Businesses such as this retailer in Ireland have been foced to close by pandemic restrictions. Patrons seen here lining up to enter after the end of Ireland's third lockdown in May 2021 (Simon Roughneen)

DUBLIN — The global economy could grow by “nearly 6 per cent” this year, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said on Monday, while warning that recovery from pandemic-related losses will be “very uneven.” Growth will be driven by the world’s three main economic powers, with China’s gross domestic product (GDP) set to expand by more than 8 per cent, the Paris-based OECD said. The US should be close behind, registering nearly 7 per cent GDP growth, with the European Union clocking a higher-than-usual 4.25 per cent.But while this year’s projected rebound would amount to “an impressive surge after the 3.5-per-cent contraction in 2020” it is unlikely to return living standards “to the level expected before the pandemic” by the end of next year, the OECD said in its 2021 Economic Outlook, which noted that pandemic-related curbs have made it more difficult to estimate GDP and “may have reduced the comparability of economic outcomes across countries.” 

Ireland’s GDP up 3.4 per cent in 2020 but other measures show decline – dpa international

Sign outside business park in Castlebar, Ireland. IDA Ireland is the country's main foreign investment agency (Simon Roughneen)

DUBLIN — Ireland’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by an estimated 3.4 per cent last year, according to the Central Statistics Office (CSO), an expansion driven by foreign business and exports but coming as domestic output shrank. “Multinational sector growth was 18.2 per cent in 2020 while non-MNE [multinational enterprise]-dominated sectors declined by 9.5 per cent,” the CSO said on Friday. Ireland reported a record 160.8 billion euros (198 billion dollars) in goods exports last year, but businesses geared towards the small domestic market “experienced significantly lower levels of economic activity,” according to the CSO’s Jennifer Banim, with hotels, restaurants and construction hit hard as personal spending fell by 9 per cent. US multinationals in sectors that have enjoyed surging global demand during the pandemic, including pharmaceuticals and big tech, have European headquarters in Ireland – drawn by low taxes and EU membership. Amazon and Microsoft were among the American corporate giants to announce expansions in Ireland last year. According to Finance Minister Pascal Donohoe, “the pharma and ICT sectors recorded extraordinary export growth, driven by blockbuster immunological drugs, Covid related products, and the shift to home-working.”

Irish economy recovers between lockdowns but further losses loom – dpa international

DUBLIN — Ireland’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 11.1 per cent during the third quarter, according to official estimates published Friday, suggesting the country’s economy saw some temporary respite between two separate lockdown periods. Jennifer Banim of the Central Statistics Office (CSO) said the “easing of Covid-19 related restrictions led to growth across almost all sectors of the economy in quarter 3.” The CSO data show Ireland’s economy rebounding after GDP contracted by around 6 per cent during the second quarter, which coincided with the country’s first coronavirus lockdown. Restaurants and pubs that serve meals reopened on Friday, after the end of a six-week second lockdown. Non-essential retail reopened earlier this week.  Ireland’s daily coronavirus case numbers, which topped the 1,200-mark in October, had dropped to below 200 by Thursday. The second pandemic wave was far less deadly than the first, according to official data released Friday. The average mortality rate in November was eight people per 1,000 confirmed cases, down from a peak of 74 per 1,000 in April, the CSO reported. Hospitalisations were 58 per 1000 cases in November, down from 192 in March.